The Doggy Bag: UFC 119 Edition

There’s a lot of hype about UFC 119, but Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader has flown under the radar. This is by far the card’s best-matched bout. How do you guys see it unfolding? I think Bader will outclass the Brazilian on the feet and finish him with punches from the top in round three.
-- Trent in Nebraska

Lutfi Sariahmed, radio host: The main event for UFC 119 doesn’t captivate the masses like we’ve seen with recent events, but it’s still a card with a few sneaky good bouts -- Nogueira vs. Bader being top amongst them. It’s actually one of two bouts on the card pitting established veteran and rising prospect against one another (Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk being the other).

I’m always intrigued by these types of bouts, because it’s the first time the prospect truly has his or her feet held to the proverbial fire. A loss doesn’t necessarily write off the rising star entirely, but it does give you a better idea as to just how good the fighter can be. Jon Jones will have that bout coming up. Dunham had that bout against Tyson Griffin and has another one when he takes on Sherk. At UFC 119, Ryan Bader will have his opportunity.

Nogueira’s exploits have been well documented. Wins over Dan Henderson, Alistair Overeem (twice) and Kazushi Sakuraba among others demand attention. While there is some debate as to how high up he ranks on the light heavyweight list, “Minotoro” poses some serious problems for Bader.

As is this case with most wrestlers making the transition to MMA, Bader’s striking is far from a finished product. But because Bader's wrestling is as strong as it is, he won't need it to be world class to beat Nogueira, simply sufficient. You've seen him show glimpses of that in his last few fights highlighted by the KO win over Keith Jardine at UFC 110. If he could manage the fight on the feet with Nogueira as opposed to having to overwhelm the Brazilian, it would allow his wrestling to take over.

The wrestling game is the most important part of this featured matchup. Bader’s accolades as a wrestler at Arizona State have been well documented and have translated well to MMA to this point. As is the case with all wrestlers in MMA, if all else fails Bader can fall back on his roots and get by at this point in his career. Beyond that, Rogerio’s a guy that struggled with Jason Brilz in his last bout, and should’ve lost the decision. Since the downfall of Pride I question if Minotoro has claimed a significant win. Bader is a very good wrestler and it’s hard to see Nogueira having much success consistently defending the takedown even if the standup portion of this bout goes in the Brazilian’s favor.

I like Bader to win, but the part of me that enjoys dabbling in semantics takes issue with using the term “outclass.” Despite Nogueira’s shortcomings, perceived or otherwise, he’s still one of the better light-heavyweights out there. “Darth” could make a huge statement in the light heavyweight division if he was to stop “Minotoro,” but I see Bader coming out on the right end of a 30-27 decision.

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