TUF 9 Finale Preview: The Main Card

Chris Lytle vs. Kevin Burns

The Breakdown: Two of the UFC’s most aw-shucks, Midwest do-gooders will match wits and fists when Iowa’s own Kevin Burns takes on the Indiana firefighter that makes us all look like lazy piles of biomass, Chris Lytle. This match is a study in similarities. Both fighters are versatile and savvy, but Lytle is the one with the experience advantage and his striking in particular is more studied and free flowing. After a pair of brawls with Anthony Johnson, many have forgotten about Burns’ slick submissions, but Burns had better hope for his own sake that he hasn’t; it represents his best and likely only hope for a win.

The X Factor: If anything has kept Lytle from reaching the next level, it has been his own inability to stay composed and measured in the cage. Lytle often plays right into his opponents’ hands by trying to beat them at their own game -- a strategic mistake that has haunted him throughout his career. Whether or not Burns is good enough of a grappler to make Lytle pay for that mistake is anyone’s guess, but it’s not a question Lytle should go off searching to answer.

The Bottom Line: Even if Burns manages to turn this into a grappling match, Lytle can more than keep up with him while scavenging whatever points he can on the feet. Considering Burns was more than willing to trade with Johnson, Lytle should be able to draw him into more than a few exchanges and that is where his combination of boxing fundamentals and physical talent will overwhelm Burns. It won’t be easy hitting a kill-shot on Burns, but Lytle should have no trouble taking home a unanimous judges’ nod.