Middleweights
Ronaldo Souza (14-3, 4-1 SF) vs. Bristol Marunde (12-6, 0-0 SF)
With that said, Souza has little to gain and plenty to lose here. A loss could severely affect his standing in the middleweight title picture, while a win more or less maintains the status quo. Overconfidence will be the Brazilian’s greatest enemy. As long he plays to his strengths, he should be able to make short work of his opponent.
Souza is regarded as one of the best grapplers in the sport today. His judo background allows for quick takedowns, and he is able to dominate from nearly any position on the canvas. Luke Rockhold, who defeated Souza for the Strikeforce middleweight title in September, was the type of fluid all-around athlete who could outstrike “Jacare” standing and get to his feet quickly when necessary. Marunde is not near that level, and a lukewarm performance against UFC veteran Jay Silva in his last outing -- where he earned a unanimous decision -- does not inspire confidence.
The Team Throwdown representative’s best chance for an upset lies in keeping the fight on the feet, but Souza is getting better and his power and athleticism should give him the edge there, as well. The X-Gym product has a solid foundation from which he can unleashes effective ground-and-pound until Marunde gives him an opening for a submission.
The Pick: Marunde has nothing to lose, so look for him to come out aggressively. “Jacare” will hurt him on the feet, and when Marunde is reeling, he showcases his superior groundwork to notch a first-round submission.
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