Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza has won six of his last seven bouts. | Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Middleweights
Ronaldo Souza (16-3, 6-1 SF) vs. Ed Herman (20-8, 0-0 SF)
Herman appeared to have had his three-fight winning streak halted by Jake Shields at UFC 150, but the bout was later ruled a no contest when it was determined that Shields tested positive for a banned substance. Still, it is worth noting that Herman’s ability to secure top control and land heavy ground-and-pound was limited in a bout against a world-class grappler such as Shields. In Souza, a five-time world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, “Short Fuse” will face yet another formidable task.
Souza is not just a grappler. The X-Gym product’s hands are a rapidly improving facet of his game, as evidenced by the counter right hook that floored Derek Brunson in his most recent outing at Strikeforce “Rousey vs. Kaufman.” It was the first knockout finish of Souza’s 20-fight professional career, but the victory could be a sign of things to come for the former 185-pound champion, who defeated Tim Kennedy in 2010 by attacking almost entirely on the feet.
Herman’s standup is limited, and he uses his striking primarily to get into tie-up range. In clinches, Herman will look to land his powerful uppercut or force the fight to the floor, where he can work to advance position for submissions or punches and elbows. Souza’s judo background will make it difficult to successfully implement such an approach. As soon as Herman is off-balance or unaware, “Jacare” will toss or trip him to the canvas.
While Herman is a game and usually durable performer, his movements are often mechanical and he will struggle to find openings against an athlete as talented as Souza. The Brazilian’s speed and power will be too much for the UFC veteran standing, and there is little reason to think he can thwart the takedown and submission game of the decorated grappler on the mat. Herman’s best chance lies in landing a big shot in the clinch, because he will not be able to return to his feet on a consistent basis after being taken down.
The Pick: Souza should be able to win this fight no matter where it is contested, but Herman is resourceful enough to at least survive a few precarious situations. Souza takes it by decision.
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