Strikeforce ‘Los Angeles’ Preview

K.J. Noons vs. Conor Heun

Back when Eddie Bravo’s newfangled rubber guard was the supposed be-all, end-all of the grappling world, word came that Bravo’s 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu gym housed a proverbial Bill Brasky in the making. Heun was the mythic smash beast in question, and he entered MMA already lauded as a premier prospect.

Reality, as it so often does, intruded on aspirations, and Heun now finds himself a short-notice quarry for Noons, a lightweight body snatcher supreme. This is an opportunity he can only take advantage of if he starts fighting with his best skills in mind, instead of employing stratagems best suited to late-night games of “Street Fighter II.” The best example of this was his fight with Jorge Gurgel, which mostly consisted of Heun losing exchanges and taking leg kicks that left his thigh looking like a Jackson Pollack.

Past fights with Yves Edwards and Nick Diaz proved that no lightweight is safe trading blows with Noons. That fact was driven home by Noons’ recent return to action against Andre Amado in a bout that saw him easily outclass “Dida” behind a sharp jab and his trademark rib-roasting combinations. Those body shots should especially worry Heun, as he typically responds to striking attacks by raising his defenses and leaving his body exposed.

Noons will not overlook that mistake since he always tries to finish combinations with body punches and Heun will be open all day for them. While such a tactic necessitates Noons getting around Heun’s sizable reach advantage, it is not an advantage the Bravo protégé employs particularly well. Prone to pawing with his jab, Heun oftentimes negates his best natural asset and does himself a further disservice by fighting flat-footed.

Immobile strikers with no jab are a body puncher’s dream, and Heun’s long torso leaves plenty of real estate for Noons to set up shop. The obvious play for Heun is to change levels and ground Noons, but such a base-level strategy has been a touch-and-go part of his game since day one. Even when Heun has used his rugged ground-and-pound -- most notably and brutally against James Edson Berto -- it came only after taking significant damage on the feet.

Assuming Heun can weather enough exchanges to realize he needs to get Noons to the mat requires some serious stretching of reality, given the fact that his chin barely survived a bout with Gurgel. While it would be interesting to see Noons’ guard tested, it seems doubtful Heun will commit to that strategy. Poor game planning is becoming the ultimate death knell in MMA, and it will cost Heun yet again in the form of a crushing knockout loss.