Strikeforce ‘Carano vs. Cyborg’ Preview

Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Gegard Mousasi

The Breakdown: One of several bouts resurrected from the corpse of Affliction, one-time top UFC contender “Babalu” Sobral will take on multi-division ace Gegard Mousasi for the Strikeforce light heavyweight title. While Mousasi’s game has always been striking-centric with occasional flashes of submission savvy, Sobral is a pure mat fighter with the troubling habit of getting into exchanges on the feet that he can’t win. The issue here is whether or not Mousasi, a regular middleweight contender, will have the firepower to back down Sobral and the takedown defense to keep this fight upright.

Just as important will be Mousasi’s ability to survive on the mat should Sobral force him there. Sobral’s taxing top control and serpentine submissions combined with his likely strength advantage make for a dicey proposition. If Mousasi is as serious as he says he is about jumping all over the divisional map, this is the fight he needs to prove that he can be the pound-for-pound juggernaut he thinks he already is. By the same token, Sobral has been a name fighter for years, and his time to carve out a legacy is running thin.

The X Factor: Every time I see Sobral, I immediately wonder if he’s going to run headfirst into the first KO punch he sees. For such a skilled fighter, he consistently makes the mistake of sacrificing brain cells in the name of bravado. I doubt Mousasi can out-grapple Sobral, but he can definitely kick and/or punch his face in. Whether or not he does depends just as much on Sobral as it does on Mousasi.

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The Bottom Line: As a middleweight, Mousasi has the potential to be an elite fighter, but that 20-pound leap to light heavyweight can claim the career of anyone not named Anderson Silva. It would be one thing if Mousasi was starting off against someone whom he can pick apart, but Sobral is going to plant Mousasi on his back and prove he can survive against the army of titans populating the light heavyweight class. Expect Mousasi to keep this fight interesting with his kickboxing and slippery mat game, but that will only keep him going long enough to hear the decision go to Sobral.