Preview: UFC on Fox 30 ‘Alvarez vs. Poirier 2’

Lightweights
Alexander Hernandez (9-1) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-2)
Odds: Aubin-Mercier (-140), Hernandez (+120)

It took a while, but top Canadian prospect Aubin-Mercier seems to finally be developing into the fighter that the UFC expected.

A talented judoka out of Quebec, Aubin-Mercier lost to Chad Laprise in the finals of the one-off “TUF: Nations” season, but the UFC still saw fit to develop his raw talent with kid gloves. For the next year and a half, Aubin-Mercier was lobbed some softballs and earned some one-sided wins, but those fights didn't tell anyone much; Aubin-Mercier just fell back on his grappling skills and did little else.

The UFC eventually decided to push Aubin-Mercier up a level, but the underrated Carlos Diego Ferreira mostly stifled his game. From there, it was back to grinding out easy wins; but at UFC 206, Aubin-Mercier's striking game suddenly looked much less wooden, as "The Quebec Kid" beat Drew Dober in the best performance of his career. Since then, it's been an upward trajectory. After earning a tough split decision over Tony Martin, Aubin-Mercier crumpled Evan Dunham with knees in the clinch in under a minute. The Dunham win was a big moment of arrival and a win here against Hernandez would go a long way towards continuing that momentum. But it still might to take a while to figure out exactly what such a win would be worth, since there are still a ton of questions about Hernandez himself.

Not a ton was expected of Hernandez upon his UFC debut. What little relevant tape existed of the Texan's previous fights showed an interesting talent whose game was marked by aggression, but he was facing a tough opponent in Beneil Dariush. So, naturally, it was a shock when Hernandez immediately overwhelmed his opponent and knocked him out in just 42 seconds. Taking out a ranked foe so quickly earned Hernandez his own spot in the UFC rankings, but it remains to be seen exactly how effective he'll be at the UFC level. There's seemingly equal chance he could be this year's Volkan Oezdemir, an unlikely contender by the time the year ends, or a talented fight that'll get quickly knocked back down the card before finding his footing.

Between his pre-UFC highlights and his win over Dariush, Hernandez has shown enough talent that he's an actual prospect rather than a flash in the pan. It’s just hard to project beyond that. This is a winnable fight for Hernandez; while Aubin-Mercier is a better athlete than Dariush, there's still vestiges of OAM’s stiffer, more robotic striking style that proved ineffective in earlier parts of his career. So if Hernandez comes out guns blazing like he did against Dariush, this could be another fight where he overwhelms his opponent before they can react. Hernandez has also shown some solid submission ability, but given the nature of the highlights out there, his wrestling is a question, which is a crucial part of this bout.

I'll favor the more known commodity in Aubin-Mercier. He’ll theoretically have his grappling base to fall back on, and even after some brief trouble dealing with Dunham's pressure, he was able to take things to the clinch and get a quick finish. I don't think things will be that simple this time around, but the Canadian's skills should still get him through this. My pick is Aubin-Mercier via decision.

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