Preview: UFC on Fox 29 ‘Poirier vs. Gaethje’

Women’s Strawweights

Michelle Waterson (14-6) vs. Cortney Casey-Sanchez (7-5)

ODDS: Casey-Sanchez (-130), Waterson (+110)

ANALYSIS: Waterson finds herself on the rebound from back-to-back losses, one to current champion Rose Namajunas and another to top contender Tecia Torres. The Jackson-Wink MMA standout is known for her karate stylings, but she has more to offer inside the cage. Her kick-heavy attack is diverse but not especially powerful. The former Invicta Fighting Championships atomweight titleholder flashes a nice jab and displays competent lateral movement, which is good because she needs open space to work effectively. She does not like getting pressured -- a problem against Torres, who stayed in her face and outworked her.

Waterson was recently promoted to purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and she has the wrestling to set up her submission attacks. The Colorado native lands an impressive 2.6 takedowns per fight and does so at a 90 percent clip. Some of these takedowns are the ill-advised head-and-arm throws that are still common in women’s MMA, but those are becoming less frequent. Earlier in her career, Waterson was perhaps too content to play guard. She is still aggressive from that position -- she averages 2.1 submission attempts per fight -- but looks to sweep or stand more quickly now; and if she gets the back, she is a problem.

Casey-Sanchez is looking to bounce back from a defeat, as well. Hers was to Felice Herrig in a close kickboxing battle in which Herrig landed the harder shots. Her opponent’s left hook, in particular, landed flush again and again. Casey-Sanchez has traditionally been very aggressive, but she seems to be playing more of a counter-oriented style of late. What really cost her against Herrig was how stationary she was with both her feet and her head. She let her opponent dictate the pace and the distance while waiting to land a big shot. Casey-Sanchez is at her best when she is aggressive because her “Cast Iron” chin and power will carry her through.

Casey-Sanchez is not much of a wrestler. However, when Jessica Aguilar took her down four times, Casey-Sanchez’s guard and upkicks played havoc on the former World Series of Fighting champion and nullified any advantage she might have had. Waterson, though, will not be deterred from taking advantage of top position if she can get it. Plus, Casey-Sanchez’s counter game allows Waterson to do what she wants on the feet. The size and strength advantage for Casey-Sanchez might turn out to be significant and turn this fight, but Waterson by tight decision is the pick.

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