Preview: UFC on Fox 16 ‘Dillashaw vs. Barao 2’

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Lightweights

Joe Lauzon (24-10, 11-7 UFC) vs. Takanori Gomi (35-10, 4-5 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Gomi and Lauzon meet in a fantastic matchup of veteran action fighters. With both men coming off knockout losses to new-breed fighters, Gomi to Myles Jury and Lauzon to Al Iaquinta, their best years appear to be behind them. They are now in legacy territory, and a convincing win here would grant access to one or two more big-money fights before the end comes.

Everything about Lauzon’s game is focused on producing fight-ending offense, both on the feet and on the mat. He is mostly a boxer on the feet, with a crisp arsenal of straight-hook combinations with which he is especially proficient on the counter. He is more than willing to exchange. His emphasis on power punching and replying with counters makes him hittable, however, and he is not especially sound defensively. In-fighting is another good area of Lauzon’s game, with sharp knees and elbows paired with the occasional trip. Despite his skill on the feet and in the clinch, Lauzon really shines on the mat. He is exceptionally aggressive and constantly looks for triangle-armbar-omoplata chains and sweeps from his guard. On top, he passes nicely and excels at forcing scrambles in which he can find the back. Cardio is a problem, though, and Lauzon has difficulty going more than two rounds at the breakneck pace he tends to set early in the fight.

Gomi is an evolved veteran these days, better in some ways than the monstrous puncher of his prime and worse in others. Once blessed with outstanding physical tools, his speed and athleticism have declined. He makes up for that deficit with better technical skills and a wily understanding of rhythm and distance. He works behind a probing jab from both stances, tapping away and adjusting his opponent to one speed before whipping a vicious left or right power punch. He is perfectly comfortable hanging in the pocket and counterpunching, and he fills the gaps in between exchanges and bursts of offense with hard low and middle kicks. His takedown defense is still excellent, though it has been years since he completed one of his own. From his back, Gomi has a bad habit of scrambling his way into bad positions and making technical errors that leave him vulnerable to the submission.

THE PICK: Given both fighters’ increasingly shopworn bodies and tendency to slug it out, this comes close to being a coin flip. I favor Lauzon by a hair, though, due to his ability to hop on hurt opponents and finish with submissions. Moreover, he might be able to take down Gomi and work him over there. I think one of those two scenarios will come to pass, so the pick is Lauzon by submission in the second round.

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