Lightweights
Loik Radzhabov (18-5-1) vs. Trey Ogden (17-6, 1 N/C)Odds: Radzhabov (-115), Ogden (-105)
It's Ogden fight time, and like most of his fights, this is an interesting matchup on paper that might not be all that exciting in practice. A well-seasoned vet before getting the UFC call in 2022, Ogden is a pure neutralizer to an impressive level; large for the lightweight division, Ogden is armed with a jab, some low kicks and a solid wrestling game, using each of those tools as necessary to keep his opponents at bay. In Ogden's last two fights it's been that wrestling and grappling game, but a 2022 win over Daniel Zellhuber showed that "Samurai Ghost" can stay consistent enough on the feet to coast out a win. Things can still easily go south for Ogden, as Jordan Leavitt was content to peck away and outpoint Ogden while Ignacio Bahamondes combined aggression with an even longer frame for the division, and it's unclear which side of that coin Radzhabov falls on.
Part of the impressive wave of fighters coming to the UFC via Tajikistan, Radzhabov has a dedicated pressure game for better or worse. "The Tajik Tank" looks to sling heat as an avenue to get into his wrestling game, and he remains dedicated to that approach even once he gets exhausted or if his opponent can throw back consistent offense in return; one of those two things usually happens, so even as Radzhabov keeps his head above water in the UFC, it's rarely in the form of a clean win for three rounds. Ogden could easily thread the needle for another neutralizing win, proving adept enough as an offensive wrestler to neutralize Radzhabov or effective enough with his jab to keep the Tajik fighter at bay, but the read is that Radzhabov brings enough aggression and physicality to the table to take away Ogden's margin for error. This figures to be grimy; the pick is Radzhabov via decision.
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