Lightweights
Marc Diakiese (16-5, 7-5 UFC) vs. Michael Johnson (20-18, 12-14 UFC)Michael Johnson is still doing Michael Johnson things, but at the very least, he is coming off one of his better performances in recent memory. Johnson’s 2013 win over Joe Lauzon served as his real breakout. Up to that point, “The Menace” had been a reliable middle-of-the-road fighter, but the Lauzon bout was where he suddenly showed off a much more effective and dynamic striking game that took advantage of his considerable hand speed. That started a run towards the fringes of title contention for Johnson, but he hit a clear ceiling once he started facing off with the lightweight elite. He managed a 95-second knockout of Dustin Poirier, but Johnson’s losses were marked by clear mental issues, as he would all too often get dragged into an uncomfortable fight that subsequently saw him get finished. The 2018 campaign served as a bit of a rebound that saw Johnson get a few fights on his own terms and come out the victor, but a four-fight losing streak from 2019 through 2021 drove home exactly how much of a distaste Johnson has developed for grappling. His striking is still sharp and his takedown defense is still sometimes on point, but Johnson tends to crumble once an opponent can get him to the mat and start making some headway. A forgiving matchup in May against Alan Patrick allowed Johnson to stop his skid, and while he lost a controversial split decision to Jamie Mullarkey in July, it was still a good sign that he managed to fight back from some tough spots and gut out what was essentially an even battle against a tough opponent. Win or lose, perhaps he can drag an entertaining fight out of Diakiese, who has prioritized success over excitement in his recent fights. Born in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and based out of England, Diakiese was one of the brightest prospects on the European scene when the UFC signed him in 2016, as “Bonecrusher” was riding a string of impressive first-round knockouts. A powerhouse of an athlete, Diakiese figured to have the physicality to work through the growing pains he faced at a technical level, but he quickly hit a plateau during the back half of 2017 and all of 2018. Diakiese focused on embracing the grind whenever he could not score a knockout, and he found himself unable to control or outstrike a certain level of opponent. Diakiese eventually corrected things and has been up and down in the last few years, though a successful 2022 run thus far has been ugly to watch. Diakiese has gone all in on an entirely wrestling-centric approach, eschewing his powerful striking game completely and turning his last two wins into absolute slogs. Somehow still just 29 years old, Diakiese still has some considerable potential and could eventually regain his dynamism, but it would be a surprise if that happened here. Johnson is a danger on the feet, and while Diakiese has been historically durable, it is hard to ignore how much potential success he can have frustrating his latest opponent in a miserable grind. The pick is Diakiese via decision.
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