Lightweights
James Vick (13-3) vs. Dan Hooker (17-8)ODDS: Hooker (-145), Vick (+125)
This fight shows how difficult life can be in the UFC’s lightweight division. Both men have been pleasant surprises and gone on impressive winning streaks within the past year, but now they each badly need a victory in order to stay afloat. Vick had a particularly odd start to his UFC career. Coming off of an impressive performance on Season 15 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” injuries limited him to only four fights over four years, with the UFC leaving him to knock off other prospects upon each return. However, circa 2016, “The Texecutioner” finally remained in good health, and Vick’s reach as a 6-foot-3 lightweight and his hand speed proved to be a tough combination for opponents to overcome. Vick has his problems, however. The downside of his height is that Vick makes for a big target if opponents decide to charge forward and test his chin, an issue made even worse by how poorly he reacts to pressure. While Vick’s quick-twitch responses have scared off some opponents, when Beneil Dariush and Justin Gaethje decided to back him down and go for the kill, things ended in spectacularly brutal fashion. After losses to Gaethje and Paul Felder, Vick is in danger of undoing the last six years of work, and Hooker will not make things easy.
Hooker has enjoyed his own surprisingly impressive rise, given that he seemed to be signed mostly because the UFC wanted a hometown fighter for its 2014 card in New Zealand. That kicked off an inconsistent featherweight campaign that saw “The Hangman” alternate wins and losses while trying to find a style that worked around his lack of high-level athleticism. His wrestling and grappling game did not particularly translate, and while Hooker was a dangerous striker, his lack of foot speed made him a plodder at 145 pounds. A 2017 move to lightweight saw Hooker’s pressure game finally click. Fading veterans like Ross Pearson and Jim Miller and rawer prospects like Marc Diakiese and Gilbert Burns got some combination of tied up and marched down by Hooker, with the Kiwi typically ending things in vicious fashion. In December, Hooker finally got his big shot against Edson Barboza, which was a favorable style matchup on paper, given the Brazilian’s issues with opponents willing to apply constant pressure. Instead, it seems to have shown Hooker’s ceiling. Barboza was just too fast for him, winning brutal exchange after brutal exchange and eventually laying a one-sided beating that went on about a round too long. Seven months later, Hooker has finally recovered enough to get back into the Octagon, and the hope is that he can get back to his winning ways.
This should be an excellent fight to calibrate exactly where each man is on the lightweight ladder, given Vick’s issues with pressure and Hooker’s issues with faster fighters. The dynamics should be fairly simple -- Hooker will move forward, and Vick will probably react poorly and try to scare him off -- but watching how it plays out should be fascinating. Vick could very well have the reach and the hand speed to keep Hooker at bay, but if nothing else, the Barboza fight showed that the Kiwi is more than willing to wade through more abuse than he should in the name of inflicting damage upon his opponent. The main concern is whether or not that affair was the type of fight that is going to permanently compromise Hooker’s durability. Assuming Hooker’s chin remains stout, he should be able to frustrate Vick enough to take home a victory. While Hooker’s lack of foot speed is a general concern when it comes to chasing down his opponents, the good news is that his reach -- particularly when it comes to his kicking game -- should be enough to throw off Vick and allow him to cause some damage while not taking constant abuse. The pick is for Hooker to cause some issues at range, win exchanges and eventually start overwhelming Vick for a second-round stoppage.
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