Heavyweights
Timothy Johnson (9-2) vs. Marcin Tybura (13-1)Given room to work, Tybura is a fairly technical kickboxer. Rarely throwing in combination, Tybura nonetheless mixes up his strikes, vacillating between powerful leg kicks, piercing front kicks and lunging punches. Tybura’s biggest problem -- one that has plagued him throughout his career -- is his tendency to stand straight up and wing his punches in the midst of an exchange. Though technical with single strikes, each successive attack leaves Tybura less composed and more vulnerable. Thus, Johnson’s pressure poses a problem for Tybura. Though Johnson is not an exceptional cage-cutter, he has an awkward boxing style that has proven effective in the UFC and he is more than happy to walk through a hail of counters in order to find the clinch, where his size and strength give him a huge advantage.
The Pole has an ace up his sleeve in the form of a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, but whether or not he gets the chance to use it depends heavily on whether or not he can outwrestle Johnson. Tybura’s wrestling is of the old school BJJ variety: He looks for the body lock and uses simple trips and foot sweeps to bring down his opponent. It is a functional approach, but Tybura has benefitted greatly from the fact that M-1 Global stages fights in a ring, not a cage, which makes takedown defense much easier. In addition, Johnson wrestled competitively in his last fight with Jared Rosholt, who, despite a reputation for dull performances, is undoubtedly one of the most successful heavyweight wrestlers to ever enter the UFC. It would be surprising to see Tybura put Johnson on his back early in the fight.
THE ODDS: Tybura (-170), Johnson (+145)
THE PICK: Tybura has a solid resume, and he is a welcome addition to the UFC’s heavyweight division. Unfortunately, he happens to find himself matched against one of the better -- and bigger -- wrestlers heavyweight has to offer. Tybura’s ground game is quite dangerous, but the link between striking and submissions just is not there yet. So long as Tybura stays on the feet, or if he winds up on bottom, he will have a hard time dealing with Johnson’s potent combination of power, strength and toughness. Johnson wins by third-round TKO.
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