Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson’

Featherweights

Ricardo Lamas (16-5) vs. Charles Oliveira (21-6)

THE MATCHUP: Thank goodness we are seeing this instead of Lamas-B.J. Penn. Lamas is simply too good for a matchup like that, and he and Oliveira are perfectly paired. Both were bested in their last performances, though neither was outclassed. Lamas proved himself to be incredibly tough against Max Holloway and repeatedly punished the young prospect every time he attempted to follow up aggressively on a telling strike. Oliveira, meanwhile, just about kept pace with Anthony Pettis on the feet, landing just 12 fewer significant strikes; and he largely out-grappled the former lightweight champion before succumbing to a guillotine choke in the third round.

Oliveira is aggressive in all things. On the feet, he marches forward relentlessly, keeping his hands high and stepping in with a salvo of kicks, knees, punches and elbows. With his height, he seems best suited to the clinch, where his powerful muay Thai compliments the front headlock chokes that have become his specialty. On the ground, Oliveira is a whirlwind of constricting limbs, requiring no more than a second’s opportunity to wrap up a submission, of which Oliveira has 13 to his name.

All of this offense seems designed to make up for one of Oliveira’s two major flaws: an almost complete lack of defensive technique. Oliveira has been finished in five of his six losses. The knockouts are bad, as Oliveira tends to walk straight into counters and has no notion of how to change levels, move his head or create space to avoid them. The submissions are arguably worse. Oliveira is so aggressive on the ground that two other submission specialists, Pettis and Miller, have managed to catch him. This vulnerability is only worsened by Oliveira’s other major fault: attitude. Oliveira almost seems to fight aggressively to hide the fact that he lacks composure should things start turning against him. He flopped dramatically when Cub Swanson hit him, folded due to an apparently minor injury against Holloway and nearly wilted when Nik Lentz, a man with a sparse 19 percent knockout rate, nailed him with a clean right hand. It would be cruel and unfair to label Oliveira a quitter, but his actions suggest something of a bully mentality. The skill set is different, but mentally, Oliveira is the featherweight Alistair Overeem.

Fortunately for Oliveira, Lamas is not exactly the most consistent fighter in the world. He is consistently game, of course. No one but Jose Aldo has beaten him easily, and even he had a scare in the fifth round when Lamas found an opportunity to take top position. Opportunism is the name of the game with Lamas. Give him one opening, and he can have a field day. Fight a consistent fight, however, and the holes in his skills start to show. Lamas is a credible striker, a decent takedown artist and a solid submission grappler. Nothing in particular stands out, and all of it seems to lack process. Lamas can beat any featherweight on the planet, and yet he came dangerously close to losing a decision to Hacran Dias, who is not even ranked in the top 10.

THE ODDS: Oliveira (-115), Lamas (-105)

THE PICK: All of that sounded quite negative, but that does not represent the feeling I get from this fight. Lamas and Oliveira both have their flaws, but that is precisely what makes this matchup so interesting. If Oliveira can press the action and counter Lamas’ wrestling with submission grappling, he stands a good chance of taking rounds off the inconsistent dark horse. If Lamas can put his game together, perhaps by reacting properly to Oliveira’s ever-present aggression, he could very well drop the Brazilian into hot water. Both men are unreliable in their own ways, but both are reliably fun to watch and absolutely two of the best featherweights on the planet. For his grit and opportunistic streak, the pick is Lamas by unanimous decision.

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