Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Barnett vs Nelson’

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Bantamweights

Takeya Mizugaki (20-9-2, 7-4 UFC) vs George Roop (15-11-1, 5-7 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Wayward bantamweights square up to decide who will go on as the gatekeeper to the top and who may fall aside for good.

Mizugaki alternated wins and losses for so many years that everyone sort of forgot just how good he was. After having his five-fight winning streak derailed by the brief but triumphant return of former champion Dominick Cruz, Mizugaki was submitted by blue-chip prospect Aljamain Sterling, and now it seems everyone has forgotten how good he is once again. Coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2007, Mizugaki needs a win to stay relevant in the division, and Roop represents his chance.

The hallmark of Mizugaki’s style is his well-roundedness. On the feet, he is at home in the pocket, where his sharp combination punching and awkward head movement makes him a dangerous counterpuncher. Mizugaki has unheralded power in both hands -- perhaps underrated because of his tendency to immediately take down and control his stunned opponents rather than going for the finish. In the clinch, he likes to hit trips from over-under, and he can also hit a nice reactive double if his opponent gets a little too aggressive. Once on the ground, Mizugaki looks to control his opponent from guard or half guard, where he goes to work with attritive elbows and punches.

Roop is another one of those fighters whose record belies the quality of his skills. Like Mizugaki, he tends to falter against top-flight opposition, but he has always interspersed those tough losses with solid wins over respectable opponents, most notably his shocking high-kick knockout of Chan Sung Jung.

That high kick is a staple of Roop’s game. He likes to fight out of a low stance, hiding his height from the opponent until he rears up and sneaks his left foot up and around the other man’s guard, often after a distracting 1-2 combination. Roop is also a crafty counterpuncher, particularly with his left hook and his right uppercut. A spearing jab is the glue that holds his tricky kickboxing game together. Defense and durability have always been questions with Roop: As a tall man, he struggles to get under overhand shots, and perhaps due to the struggle of getting his massive frame down to 135 pounds, he does not take a shot particularly well. Roop’s takedown defense is solid, but he is not at home on the ground and always looks to get back to his feet right away, sometimes giving up his back in the process.

THE ODDS: Mizugaki (-215), Roop (+185)

THE PICK: This is not an easy one to call. Both Roop and Mizugaki are dangerous and crafty, which explains why both have been giving trouble to more athletic opponents for the last decade. As always, the reach advantage makes Roop a tempting choice, but his lack of defensive awareness makes him too vulnerable for the cagy Mizugaki. If Mizugaki is smart, he will play the counterpuncher and force Roop to come after him, undoing his own reach advantage while walking into the Japanese vet’s punches and takedowns. Mizugaki has never been much of a finisher, but Roop’s been on the wrong end of too many one-punch KOs to think that he will survive Takeya’s best shots. The pick is Mizugaki by knockout in round two.

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