Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Bader vs. Nogueira 2’

Middleweights

Thales Leites (26-6) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (18-1)

THE MATCHUP: Sometime shortly after his loss to Anderson Silva at UFC 97, Leites figured out he could strike. The strides he made in his kickboxing were technical, to a point, but the biggest change was an improvement in confidence. Leites realized he had power and a chin to go with it. If Silva could not knock him out, then who could? So far, no one has.

That growing confidence did not, however, lead to a blossoming skill set. Leites returned to the UFC and notched some impressive wins, but they were mostly the result of aggression and power rather than craft: right hand, left hook, occasional kick. That is about the gist of it, to this day. Leites did appear to make one important change lately, however. He had learned to trade blows, but whatever happened to his jiu-jitsu? Wrestling was the problem. Leites used to get takedowns all the time, but for two years and five fights, he only managed two of them. His wrestling technique was the problem: Leites frequently dove for his opponents’ hips with no drive, leaving him to force the takedown with his hips high and head out of position against the fence. In his latest fight, however, Leites showed good timing with reactive shots, tangled up his opponent’s legs against the fence and chain wrestled his man to the ground on five separate occasions before locking in the rear-naked choke.

Unfortunately for Leites, Jotko is a stouter defender of takedowns than Chris Camozzi. He was floored in his first two UFC bouts, but no one has taken him down in the last four years. In fact, Jotko is usually the one initiating the wrestling, setting up well-timed shots with constant movement and a variety of feints and strikes.

Jotko spends most of his time striking these days, however, cleverly relying on his takedowns to break his opponents’ rhythm while sticking them with an awkward array of punches, kicks and Silva-esque elbows from the outside in the meantime. Jotko’s movement is his greatest weapon, and he has worked hard to improve it over the last few years. Early in his UFC career, Jotko was not only easily pressured into the fence but easily kept there, as well. Though his out-fighting style does still allow his opponent to control the center of the Octagon, Jotko is quite good at using feints and counterstrikes to fight his way out of a corner. While Jotko only has four knockouts to his name, the one-punch finish of Tamdan McCrory in his last outing proves he can crack when the need arises.

THE ODDS: Leites (-150), Jotko (+130)

THE PICK: Because of Jotko’s movement and defensive wrestling, the majority of this fight should play out on the feet. Leites is the bigger man with slightly longer arms, but Jotko will not hesitate to fight him from the outside. That is a tactic with which Leites really struggled against Michael Bisping and Gegard Mousasi, and though he utterly dominated Camozzi, he was stunned by long-range shots when Camozzi tried to rally at the start of the third round. Unless Leites shows an unexpected level of technical depth -- and that seems unlikely -- Jotko should be able to run him around the Octagon and into his strikes all night. The pick is Jotko by unanimous decision.

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