Lightweight
NR | Nasrat Haqparast (12-3, 4-2 UFC) vs. NR | Rafa Garcia (11-0, 0-0 UFC)Haqparast has been an interesting prospect to track. His pre-UFC film showed a young talent who was improving greatly from fight to fight, and he impressed greatly in his UFC debut—a game effort in a loss to crafty veteran Marcin Held. From there, Haqparast quickly looked like the type of prospect that could be a future UFC champion, showing fast hands and an impressive overall game in one-sided wins over Marc Diakiese, Thibault Gouti and Joaquim Silva. However, 2020 was the first year where things started to go sideways for Haqparast. He underestimated the power of Drew Dober, who quickly stunned and finished him on one of the first exchanges of their fight, and a bounce-back win over Alex Munoz felt a bit flat. It was still a clear victory for Haqparast, but he allowed Munoz much more control and offense than expected given the gap in natural talent. Perhaps he will have a sharper performance against a late-notice replacement and UFC newcomer in Garcia. Mexico’s Garcia should be a fun addition to the UFC’s lightweight roster, but this is a difficult ask for his first test inside the Octagon. Garcia mostly gets by on durability and pressure, typically marching down opponents in the hopes of eventually scoring a takedown. It is not entirely clear if that wrestling can translate up a level to UFC competition, and given that Haqparast is an even more naturally gifted fighter than the norm, taking over this fight would be a major upset. This should be another easy Haqparast win. It is just a matter of how seriously he decides to take this fight and how Garcia’s durability holds up. The pick is Haqparast via second-round stoppage.
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