Lightweights
Charles Oliveira (25-8) vs. David Teymur (8-1)ODDS: Oliveira (-120), Teymur (+100)
When Oliveira burst onto the UFC scene as a 20-year-old submission whiz, the subsequent matchmaking registered as prospect malpractice. Oliveira would get one or two flashy wins over the lower tiers of the roster and then immediately be rushed into fights with veteran killers like Donald Cerrone and Cub Swanson. Some brutal losses left Oliveira as a fighter with memorably shaky confidence, often caving as soon as the fight stopped going his way. Nearly a decade later, “Do Bronx” may finally be rounding into the fighter he was supposed to be all along. There is still some trepidation about how Oliveira will react if he gets cracked really hard, but since moving back to lightweight -- hopefully for good, despite his constant teases of a cut back to 145 pounds -- he has shown a shockingly effective pressure striking. Of course, that mostly exists to set up Oliveira’s submission game, which is one of the best the sport has ever seen and has resulted in a UFC-record 12 tapout victories. Oliveira rack up three wins in 2018 and proved to be in the best form of his career. Far from showing any confidence issues, Oliveira was content to move in and implement his will, eventually scoring three submission victories. Despite being in a solid place to move up the ladder and become a lightweight contender, Oliveira instead finds himself in a gatekeeper role here, taking a quick turnaround assignment to take on a top Swedish prospect in Teymur.
This fight was a late addition to this card and a pleasant surprise. Even beyond the talent involved, Teymur had apparently found himself in the tricky situation of being a tough out without much name value, making it difficult to find a willing opponent who made sense for his career. Teymur did not have a particularly deep resume heading into Season 22 of “The Ultimate Fighter” and did not even stand out much on the show, but once he made it to the UFC roster, his precise and technical kickboxing game began to shine, culminating in a breakout win over Lando Vannata at UFC 209. Since then, Teymur has not been particularly active -- evidently, a lot of top fighters have no desire to face him -- but he has continued to win without much trouble, scoring easy victories over Drakkar Klose and Nik Lentz. Thankfully, Oliveira stepped up to give Teymur his sternest test yet, and a win here would perhaps finally set up the Swede for some high-profile fights.
While Oliveira serves as a major test for the Swede, Teymur also serves as a significant benchmark for Brazilian, who would go a long way towards proving he has moved beyond his early-career issues with a win over a talented prospect in his prime. Like most Oliveira fights, this hinges on his ability to get his grappling game going. Even though Teymur does not seem to have the one-hit power to completely cave this version of Oliveira, the Swede should be expected to win a kickboxing match, particularly if “Do Bronx” continues to pressure and leaves himself available to get hit. While Teymur has proven to have some solid defensive wrestling in his last few fights, he has not faced someone as dangerous with his grappling as Oliveira. Even if Oliveira does not get much past the clinch or cannot hold down Teymur, he is still creative and venomous enough that he can probably find some way to the Swede’s neck if given the opportunity. Unfortunately for Teymur, this version of Oliveira is the best yet at finding those opportunities. The pick is Oliveira via second-round submission.
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