Middleweights
Cezar Ferreira (13-6) vs. Ian Heinisch (11-1)ODDS: Ferreira (-185), Heinisch (+160)
Ferreira is a Vitor Belfort protege, but he has followed more of the Alistair Overeem career path thus far. In winning the middleweight bracket on Season 1 of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil,” Ferreira looked like a prospect to watch, but in short order, it became apparent that he was a glass cannon. He could score some impressive finishes but was just as likely to eat a knockout himself. After a few lost years, including an ill-advised cut to welterweight, Ferreira wound up completely reworking his style, and the results have been outstanding, with five wins in his last six fights. Ferreira has adopted a more conservative striking style and relied on an underrated grappling game, including a signature arm-triangle choke that has given him wins over Jack Hermansson and Karl Roberson. At this point, Ferreira probably deserves a shot at a breakthrough win and the type of status that some expected of him when he first made his UFC debut, but thanks to some late injuries, he faces the debuting Heinisch.
Heinisch has a crazy life story involving drug trafficking across two continents and a stint at Rikers before turning around his fortunes, but he is also an interesting prospect. One of the graduates of the most recent season of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, Heinisch is a high-level wrestler who has managed to supplement that with an effective power striking game. Matchmaking for DWTNCS alums has been hit or miss, and the late-notice nature of this one means Heinisch is getting a tougher ask than usual; however, he has enough talent to be up to the task.
Even with the late replacement, this remains an interesting fight and possibly even a tougher matchup for Ferreira. Tom Breese is still the better overall fighter, but Heinisch is much more aggressive and capable of finding Ferreira’s chin. Those durability concerns will always loom large for the Brazilian, but I still think Heinisch’s sometimes-wild power striking is something Ferreira can avoid over the course of three rounds. Add in that Ferreira has the strong wrestling to neutralize the best parts of Heinisch’s game, and this feels like a win for “Mutante.” It is a dangerous bout, and Heinisch scoring a knockout would not be shocking, but the pick is Ferreira via decision.
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