Welterweights
Alexey Kunchenko (18-0) vs. Thiago Alves (22-12)
Odds: Kunchenko (-500), Alves (+400)
Almost 13 years into his UFC career -- and somehow still just 34 years old -- it'll be interesting to see what Thiago Alves has left over the next few years. Thanks to his athleticism, power and a fearsome leg-kicking game, Alves earned a shot at Georges St. Pierre at UFC 100, but since then it's been a slow slide down the ranks. In recent years, Alves has still had his moments, but every time he has a long injury layoff, he looks a bit more diminished, and there have been a bunch of injury layoffs; since 2012, Alves has had separate stretches of 25, 18 and 10 months in between fights. Alves has enough skill to give opponents trouble with a well-put together striking game, as he rebounded from an ill-advised cut to lightweight with a strong win over Patrick Cote, but his last bout against Curtis Millender raised some concerns, as Alves was athletically overmatched before suffering the second clean knockout loss of his career.
Alves takes on undefeated Kunchenko, who makes his long-overdue debut in the Octagon. It's a bit amusing that Kunchenko's the prospect while Alves is the grizzled vet, given that Kunchenko is only a few months younger than Alves, but Kunchenko only has five-plus years of pro experience behind him, most of which is impressive. A training partner of Alexander Shlemenko, Kunchenko relies on a strong muay Thai striking game to punish his opponents, and while he's had his issues with being controlled, he's found a way to either get the knockout or the scorecards every time out. Between age and some concerns about his defensive wrestling, Kunchenko may top out as an action fighter rather than a welterweight contender, but he's an excellent addition to the UFC roster and still has some upside to be a bit more.
This looks like a setup win over Kunchenko. My main concern, again, is Kunchenko's defensive wrestling, as Alves may have success if he just tries to pin Kunchenko down to the fence or the mat, but given Alves' fading strength and athleticism, I assume at some point Kunchenko can start stuffing takedowns and keep the fight standing, which should get the ball rolling to a win. If this fight was taking place even a year ago, I might think Alves could survive his way to a decision, but given the knockout that he just suffered to Millender, I have my concerns. The pick is Kunchenko via second-round knockout.
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