Welterweights
Jake Ellenberger (31-13) vs. Ben Saunders (21-9-2)
Odds: Ellenberger (-190), Saunders (+165)
Two past-their-prime but still-game welterweights square off here. Ellenberger is not the aggressive wrecking machine he was in 2011-12, but his overall kickboxing has become more technical. Under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA, “The Juggernaut” has learned how to do more than swing for the fences. He still possesses mind-numbing power -- witness his instant knockdown of Matt Brown -- but he has more tools at his disposal. Before getting posterized by Mike Perry’s hellbow, Ellenberger used a solid stick-and-move game supplemented by clinches he initiated on his terms against the aggressive puncher. Kicking, particularly to the body, has become a more consistent part of his attack as well. Unfortunately, as his chin and athleticism have started to fade, so has his output. He had his moments against Jorge Masvidal but succumbed to the Miami native’s vaunted combination punching in the pocket. Ellenberger still has solid, if unspectacular, takedowns in his back pocket, as well.
Saunders has seen inconsistent results in his latest Octagon stint, but lack of action is not something his fights suffer from. He is a long kickboxer, flicking out front kicks, side kicks to the head and body, and whipping round kicks at all targets. “Killa B” is hittable, though. His height has always made his chin an inviting target, and opponents have eagerly chopped away at his gangly legs. The ATT product protects himself somewhat with a dangerous clinch game featuring sharp knees and elbows. While Saunders does boast a black belt in BJJ, his wrestling has always been so-so, particularly offensively. If the fight goes to the ground, the Floridian is usually on his back, working his rubber guard.
Saunders could take this on volume. His deteriorating durability has not yet manifested itself in an unwillingness to throw. His last bout with Alan Jouban was an absolute slobberknocker until Jouban ended it with a left cross. But Saunders is increasingly losing the kickboxing battles that once favored him. He isn’t particularly quick or powerful and wading forward as he does results in him absorbing more damage than he is able to dish out. Ellenberger will land the harder shots, especially to the body, and mix in a few change-of-pace takedowns. “The Juggernaut” gets a much-needed win by third-round TKO.
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