Odds: Santos (-210), Branch (+175)
Like the main event, this middleweight pairing is of the striker-versus-grappler variety. Former two-division World Series of Fighting title holder Branch will attempt to get back on track in the middleweight title picture after his September loss to Luke Rockhold. And Santos, a dynamo of sinewy, liver-busting violence, will look to collect his most impressive scalp yet and stake his own claim as a contender.
Branch is a smart, well-rounded fighter. A black belt under Renzo Gracie, the grappler has rounded out the rest of his game to feature above-average wrestling and serviceable striking. The New York-based Branch generally looks to out-fight and pot-shot with kicks to the legs and body backed up with sharp 1-2s. He keeps distance to protect his chin and to force his adversary to lunge across the intervening space, opening him up to reactive takedowns. But he showed in his recent battle with Luke Rockhold that he can adapt. Branch pressured the dynamic Californian, closed inside his lethal kicking range, and rocked him with punches in close quarters. He is also very comfortable in the clinch, where he looks to trip the fight to the canvas and set to work with his jiu-jitsu.
“Marreta” is one of the most offensively gifted fighters today. It’s hard to overstate how thunderous and debilitating his kicks are. He is the middleweight analogue to headliner Edson Barboza, rivaling the lightweight for speed while wielding a frame 30-plus pounds heavier. Santos’ boxing is coming along as well. Everything he throws is with evil intent, but he recently showed off a crisp jab against Jack Hermansson as the Swede tried probing for a way in. That has traditionally been the way to attack him. The Tata Fight Team export gets wild when pressured and becomes downright vulnerable with his back to the cage. His takedown defense is sturdy at 70%, but above-average wrestlers can plant him.
All of this bodes well for Branch. Obviously getting in a fistfight with Santos is no picnic, but Branch just tried to fight to a similar gameplan against Rockhold. Santos, though, does not have the AKA rep’s wrestling or otherworldly top game. Branch’s chin will have to stand up to some heavy fire, and his first takedown will not be enough, as Santos can explode out of bad positions while fresh. But Branch has shown that he can stick his head in his opponent’s chest, hurt them with his hands, and take them down. Whether by grinding Santos out or submitting him late, Branch gets back on track.
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