Lightweight
Desmond Green (20-6) vs. Michel Prazeres (23-2)ODDS: Prazeres (-140), Green (+120).
ANALYSIS: Prazeres’ five-fight winning streak is the third longest in the UFC’s lightweight division behind Tony Ferguson’s 10 and Khabib Nurmagomedov’s eight in a row. He has two consecutive north-south choke finishes, the only man responsible for more than one of the five in UFC history. Yet Prazeres remains completely anonymous, just another lightweight filling undercards. His push for six straight Octagon wins faces a serious potential spoiler in Green.
The 36-year-old Prazeres is a physical tank, bulling forward and shooting takedowns: He attempts just over 10 per fight and lands 4.44 over 15 minutes. When he gets on top, he is not much of a pounder, idly punching away while exerting heavy pressure to open up smothering passes and preferably chokes. He has taken down every fighter he has faced in the UFC at least once. However, the 5-foot-6 Prazeres is a fireplug who needs to oxygenate those muscles; there are few things more tiring in an MMA context than blowing takedowns, and the “Tractor” has real problems keeping gas in the tank.
Enter Green, a fast and physical athlete and former University of Buffalo wrestler. Green does not use his takedowns as often as you might think, preferring to work a measured, counterstriking game from the outside. He operates most often as a fast-twitch sprawl-and-brawler. Suffice say, Prazeres needs to get Green down on the floor and hold him there. “The Predator” is not a submission grappling wizard and has been tapped in ill-advised transitions on several occasions. Green’s often frustrating passivity may even help him here, forcing Prazeres to shoot ugly takedowns from outside or wasting his energy in the clinch.
The blueprint on how to beat Prazeres is well-established and I foresee the Belem local taking an L in a minor upset, with Green winning a close, competitive decision.
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