Preview: UFC Fight Night 123 ‘Swanson vs. Ortega’

Lightweight

Scott Holtzman (10-2) vs. Darrell Horcher (13-2)

ODDS: Holtzman (-120), Horcher (+100)

ANALYSIS: In this day and age, we can debate whether or not lightweight is still truly the best top-to-bottom division in MMA. Regardless of whether you prefer the depth of welterweight or any other class, I think we can safely agree that if you are an anonymous UFC mid-carder at 155 pounds, losing is definitely not in your best interest. Such is life for Holtzman and Horcher.

Holtzman is a scrappy wrestle-boxer out of Shields Systems in Knoxville, Tennessee, and supplements his training under John Crouch at the MMA Lab in Arizona. You may recognize Horcher from his Bellator MMA stint or a UFC debut in which he stepped in for an injured Tony Ferguson on short notice and got smashed by Khabib Nurmagomedov. Not unlike Holtzman’s training dynamic, Pennsylvania’s Horcher trains at Unrivaled Athletics and then bolsters his efforts in the gym by working with the well-traveled Jeff Curran in Illinois. Unlike Holtzman, seven weeks after he made his UFC debut, Horcher was in a horrific motorcycle wreck that easily could have killed him. Horcher returned to the UFC just 14 months later, winning a decision over Devin Powell in June.

Distance figures to be of paramount importance here. The southpaw Horcher only has an inch of reach on “Hot Sauce,” but his game plan revolves around maintaining medium to long range and countering with heavy lead lefts and then combinations. Holtzman can box from the outside but is infinitely more effective in the clinch and is the more aggressive wrestler, averaging 2.27 takedowns per 15 minutes. Holtzman needs to get into close range quickly and repeatedly and win the majority of scrambles, while “The Saint” needs to limit actual physical contact, keep a halo around himself and try to bop his oncoming target with his whipping left.

Horcher has the better chance of a stoppage because of the power in his left hand, but he seldom throws it consistently and is passive far too often. Holtzman will have to eat leather and find ways to manufacture offense in close and on the heels of broken takedowns, but his overall activity and forward pressure could be a deciding factor in a nip-tuck decision. Holtzman takes it via work rate and the judges’ good graces.

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