Preview: UFC Fight Night 121 ‘Werdum vs. Tybura’

Lightweight

Jake Matthews (11-3) vs. Bojan Velickovic (15-5-1)

ODDS: Matthews (-135), Velickovic (+115)

ANALYSIS: Matthews is still just 23 years old and one of the brightest hopes for Australian MMA, yet his 4-3 mark in the UFC feels like a disappointment to most, despite the fact two of those losses were to outstanding fighters in James Vick and Kevin Lee. Nonetheless, a split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook in his Melbourne backyard 12 months ago has him on the move back to welterweight, where he competed earlier in his pre-UFC career.

“The Celtic Kid” is an outstanding athlete, fleet and powerful, and his physical intensity is amplified when he can put opponents on the floor, where he delivers thunderous punches and elbows, socking his adversaries until they give up positions and eventually submissions. Matthews’ dynamism is a gift and a curse, as his youthful exuberance can get him into trouble. He was having early success against Vick but could not hold him down on his first takedown. Matthews grew unnecessarily predictable and went straight into a guillotine from a premier MMA neck-chopper. The Holbrook loss was a strategic failure, as Matthews did not capitalize on the success he was having with right hands and low kicks and instead allowed the American, a natural scrambler, to work his game by repeatedly going for takedowns.

Unlike Holbrook, the 28-year-old Velickovic does not want to have his back on the mat. A Serbian native now training with Elevation Fight Team in Denver, Velickovic is a conservative southpaw stylist, loading up on big left-handed counters and sparse kicks to the legs and body from range. When suitable and a wrestling matchup is less threatening, he is decent at using his size to command clinch battles and grind inside. That size should be formative: “Serbian Steel” will enjoy a four-inch reach advantage, and while Matthews was a large lightweight and will not be generally outsized at 170 pounds, Velickovic is a massive welterweight.

Velickovic’s best ploy here is to circle, keep the kicking to a minimum and try to create left-handed counter chances on the perpetually charging Matthews. The Aussie does not lack for toughness, though, as evidenced in his grueling, brutal third-round submission of Johnny Case. There are legitimate concerns about whether Matthews will blossom into an elite fighter and if his hyper-physical style will play well at 170 pounds, but Velickovic is likely to be stagnated by the younger fighter’s takedown barrages and the accompanying smashing on the floor. Matthews by decision is the call, but it is not out of the question for him to take the Serbian’s back and choke him out if he can apply early heavy pressure from top position.

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