Lightweights
Alexander Hernandez (14-8, 6-7 UFC) vs. Austin Hubbard (16-7, 4-5 UFC)UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
It’s unclear where Hernandez goes from here, but at least he’s at a point where he’s overcome the issues that threatened to completely derail his mixed martial arts career. Hernandez was one of the UFC’s breakout newcomers of 2018, debuting with a 42-second knockout of Beneil Dariush and following that with a dominant win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, seemingly setting him up for a run towards title contention in 2019. Then came his fight against Donald Cerrone. In one of the last great performances of Cerrone’s career, the veteran blew apart every hole in Hernandez’s aggressive approach, eventually scoring a second-round knockout and sending him careening into the proverbial wilderness. Hernandez at first wildly overcorrected with a distressingly inactive fight against Francisco Trinaldo, then cycled through various ideas that never seemed to fix his issues. He could still blow through the lowest reaches of the UFC’s lightweight roster but also consistently imploded against any opponent able to stick around. It wasn’t until a 2023 win over Jim Miller that Hernandez seemed to finally put everything together, but it hasn’t resulted in any sort of major momentum. Hernandez has been plying his trade at featherweight since and wound up losing decisions to Bill Algeo and Damon Jackson. They were both surprisingly solid performances against the type of fighter that would’ve easily broken Hernandez in the past—he even staged a late comeback against Jackson—but it seems like he’ll be destined to settle in as a solid midcard fighter, which isn’t quite what most would’ve hoped five years ago but is also much better than things were looking in recent years. He now takes a late-notice fight up at lightweight against Hubbard for what should be a solid affair. The UFC quietly cut ties with Hubbard in 2021, but he was back in the promotion within two years and has continued his trend of alternating wins and losses. That all feels about right for “Thud,” who’s about the most solidly unexciting fighter on the UFC roster. He’s a tough out who’s technically sound and can handle his own anywhere, but the lack of wrinkles in his game has made it hard for him to surprise his opponents and find a finish. Now that Hernandez can put together three solid rounds, he should be able to take an early lead and cruise to a win in a decent enough fight. The pick is Hernandez via decision.
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