Preview: UFC 288 Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

#5 WSW | Marina Rodriguez (16-2-2, 6-2-2 UFC) vs. #9 WSW | Virna Jandiroba (18-3, 4-3 UFC)

ODDS: Rodriguez (-140), Jandiroba (+120)

There is not an obvious next contender for strawweight champion Weili Zhang, which makes Rodriguez’s last loss particularly ill-timed. Rodriguez has been an interesting case ever since making her UFC debut in 2018, as she has been highly successful while also walking a tightrope as a striker without elite-level athleticism. The pros and cons of Rodriguez’s bag of skills were immediately on display in that UFC debut against Randa Markos. Rodriguez clearly won two rounds as the better striker but suffered an absolute blowout loss of a round when Markos looked to take the fight to the mat, resulting in a draw on the scorecards. That is not Rodriguez’s only UFC fight with the same dynamic. A shade over a year later, Cynthia Calvillo did not pursue her wrestling until the third round and found a ton of success in doing so, turning a clear loss into another draw. It took Carla Esparza, the most dogged wrestler in the division, to finally hand Rodriguez her first loss—even if she did get a lot of work done from her back—and that figured to be a blueprint that future opponents could follow, only for that to never happen. Amanda Ribas found some wrestling success up until the point that she got knocked out, and from there, Rodriguez showed just enough takedown defense to skate by some opponents that probably should have looked to wrestle even more. After another narrow win over Xiaonan Yan in March 2022, Rodriguez seemed poised for a title shot on the back of a strong four-fight winning streak, but the timing never quite worked out. Esparza’s title win over Rose Namajunas opened the door for the UFC to make Zhang the next title challenger, so Rodriguez was left to keep busy with a high-risk, low-reward fight against Amanda Lemos. Naturally, it led to Lemos scoring an emphatic upset and leaving Rodriguez without much momentum. With things as wide open as they are, Rodriguez could easily find her way back into the title picture with another win or two, but Jandiroba could be a deceptively tough bounce-back opponent. The book is fairly simple on Jandiroba, even if she has improved greatly during her four years on the UFC roster. “Carcara” came to the promotion as a standout wrestler and grappler, and that remains her bread and butter. To her credit, she has built out a shockingly effective striking game for someone who did not appear to have much potential in that department. However, whether or not Jandiroba wins or loses typically comes down to her ability to outwrestle her opponent; and she looks to have a clear path to victory here. There does not look to be the huge athletic gap that has marked Jandiroba’s worst losses. While Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense, Jandiroba would be one of the better wrestlers on her slate, as well as having the grappling ability to turn those takedowns into a lot of control time. She may get clipped in doing so, but it looks like Jandiroba can turn this into a grind and neutralize Rodriguez on her way to a victory. The pick is Jandiroba via decision.

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