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Middleweights
Andre Petroski (8-1, 3-0 UFC) vs. Wellington Turman (18-5, 3-3 UFC)ODDS: Petroski (-195), Turman (+165)
This could be grimy, but it is a well-matched pairing that could give the winner a surprising amount of momentum. Petroski was one of the better-regarded middleweight prospects on the 2021 season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but the Pennsylvanian’s game seemed to be a bit less than the sum of his parts. Petroski can look great when he is given the opportunity to be a bullying wrestler, but he has tended to wear himself out against opponents who survive past the early going—an issue made worse by his powerful but often wild striking. Petroski got a soft entry into the UFC with wins over Micheal Gillmore and Yaozong Hu, which were both one-sided but a bit worrying. They were opponents Petroski figured to run through quickly, but they made for ugly fights that saw him score late finishes. That did not figure to bode well when Petroski got a bump in competition against fellow talented grappler Nick Maximov in May. Naturally, that somehow turned into the most impressive win of Petroski’s career, as he scored a submission in just 76 seconds. Petroski looks to make it four straight UFC wins against Turman, who finally has the first momentum of his UFC career. Still just 26 years old, Turman’s UFC tenure did not get off the best start. The Brazilian found his most success as a smothering grinder but had trouble getting things to that point, as he has typically been an uncomfortable striker in the face of any sort of danger. Sam Alvey proved to be beatable in August 2021, and Turman surprisingly found an armbar submission against Misha Cirkunov in February to start a winning streak, even if both victories felt a bit tenuous. Petroski should get out to a hot start thanks to his sheer confidence, but if this goes any length of time, it becomes an absolute question mark. Petroski will still try to fight through exhaustion, and it is unclear if his wild power is enough of a threat to keep Turman in his shell for three rounds. The hope is that someone finds a finish in those early grappling exchanges and prevents things from getting too ugly, and Petroski gets the nod as the more assertive fighter. The pick is Petroski via first-round submission.
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