Light Heavyweights
NR | Ovince St. Preux (25-16, 13-11 UFC) vs. NR | Mauricio Rua (27-12-1, 11-10-1 UFC)It is unclear why the UFC decided to run back this 2014 fight between “Shogun” and St. Preux, but at the same time, both men are diminished enough that this may be one of the better bookings possible for each of them. Their first fight, a headlining affair in Uberlandia, saw St. Preux score a knockout in just 34 seconds, and figured to be a turning point for both men. For St. Preux, it was a much-needed breakthrough victory; for Rua, it was the sign that he was no longer among the light heavyweight elite. However, it has been a weird ride for both men since. Rua looked physically shot for a while even before that bout but still managed to gut through a shockingly successful career in the ensuing eight years. Anthony Smith successfully blitzed him, but Rua was mostly otherwise able to gut through his opponent’s offense and show just enough craft and effectiveness to outfox the many flawed fighters at 205 pounds. As for St. Preux, “OSP” remained a concern in the light heavyweight division for years to come, even though he was frustratingly inconsistent. A standout athlete as a former University of Tennessee linebacker, St. Preux built out a disjointed game focused more around individual skills than any sort of consistent theory, banking on his durability and athleticism to hold everything together. Things seem to be at a nadir for both men heading into this fight. Rua went to a draw with Paul Craig in 2019 that the UFC ran back a year later, and even in those 12 months, he had slipped enough to turn that rematch into a one-sided loss. While St. Preux was always prone to having his good days and bad days, he has been in poor form for his last few showings. His durability has betrayed him, making him more reticent to pull the trigger on his strikes and greatly diminishing his offensive effectiveness. Even with all that, he still seems to have enough in the way of physical advantages that he is the clear favorite here. If he does not just quickly knock Rua out once again, he still figures to have enough range and comparative speed to keep the Brazilian at bay; and he may just be able to outwrestle the living legend if all else fails.
FEELY'S PREDICTION:This may just be out of hope that this is over quickly, but the pick is St. Preux via first-round knockout.
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UFC 274 Prelims