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Welterweights
NR | Kevin Holland (21-7, 8-4 UFC) vs. NR | Alex Oliveira (22-11-1, 11-9 UFC)ODDS: Holland (-290), Oliveira (+230)
It feels like ages ago, but Holland seemed poised to become a star heading into 2021. Through his first few years on the UFC roster, he gained some fans through his creative fighting style—this is a man who started his UFC career by attempting a flying armlock of some sort on Thiago Santos, after all—but it was not until the pandemic era of the promotion that the “Trailblazer” fully blossomed. For one thing, the chaotic matchmaking of the time allowed Holland to fight as much as possible. He banked five fights over the course of 2020, with four of them coming in about a four-month span from August to December. Holland’s willingness to trash talk his opponents, essentially providing commentary for his own fights in an empty arena, only further made him consistent must-watch television. Holland capped off the year with a knockout of Ronaldo Souza—the biggest win of his career—and looked set for a breakthrough in his first UFC main event, a bout against Derek Brunson the following March. Instead, it started a stretch of a few weeks that seemed to completely kill Holland’s momentum. Holland had his moments, but Brunson essentially put on a wrestling clinic and put that weakness in Holland’s game on full display. The point was driven home further just three weeks later, when Holland stepped in on late notice for another main event against Marvin Vettori and was consistently outwrestled again. An attempt at a rebound against Kyle Daukaus in the fall did not get much of anywhere. Their fight ended quickly in a no contest due to an accidental clash of heads, and Holland got injured training for the immediate rematch. Holland has apparently put in the work to shore up his wrestling, and he will look to show off those chops while cutting down to welterweight in a somewhat surprising move. He will be a comparatively larger fighter, but it is also known as a wrestler’s division. At any rate, Holland’s journey to a new weight class starts here, where he will look to find success against the skidding Oliveira.
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Oliveira impressed in his UFC debut—a 2015 loss to Gilbert Burns that Brazil’s “Cowboy” took on late notice—and from there, he was a bit hard to peg. He has obviously always been a talent with natural physical strength, but he was not particularly consistent fight to fight. Even if it was not clear which parts of his game would be clicking, Oliveira still did enough to mostly stay in the win column; after his fight against Burns, Oliveira only lost two of his next 12 bout. However, since a 2018 loss to Gunnar Nelson, things have mostly gone off the rails. One constant through Oliveira’s career is that he struggled against opponents who refused to go away, so 2019 losses to the typically durable Mike Perry and Nicolas Dalby were not exactly shocks. At this point, Oliveira clearly seems to struggle greatly when he does not feel in complete control of a fight. He was able to get his own pace for a narrow decision win over Max Griffin and a more one-sided victory over Peter Sobotta, but Shavkat Rakhmomov, Randy Brown and Niko Price—all lanky opponents who did not allow Oliveira to stay comfortable at range—were able to bring out the worst in the Brazilian. If Oliveira can get back to his bullying ways, there is a chance he could find some success against Holland, but it seems like the latter’s pronounced size and reach advantages should carry him here even without much in the way of improvement. The pick is Holland via first-round knockout.
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