Heavyweights
#4 HW | Curtis Blaydes (14-3, 9-3 UFC) vs. #6 HW | Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-2, 6-2 UFC)ODDS: Blaydes (-310), Rozenstruik (+255)
Is Blaydes too good to be an elite heavyweight? Blaydes came into the UFC in 2016 with a rightful amount of hype behind him. A massive human with a strong wrestling background, Blaydes was highly regarded enough that his UFC debut saw him come in as a betting favorite against Francis Ngannou. It wound up in a loss, with Blaydes eating enough damage that the bout was stopped due to an eye injury, but “Razor” rebounded quite well with a six-fight undefeated streak before getting knocked out quickly by Ngannou in their rematch. In the two-plus years since, Blaydes has continued to improve, including an impressively striking-heavy win over Junior dos Santos in early 2020, staking his claim as a clear contender near the top of the heavyweight division. However, it has always felt a bit like Blaydes has been walking a tightrope on his path to success. While he is a bruising wrestler, Blaydes is not much of a finisher, with most of his stoppage wins coming via attrition rather than any sort of one-shot knockout. In a division like heavyweight, that leaves the constant risk that while Blaydes could be controlling the balance of his fights, most of his opponents can swing the momentum in their favor—or find a knockout themselves—with one big punch. That is exactly what happened in February, when Blaydes was seemingly cruising to a win over Derrick Lewis after an impressive first round, shot in for a takedown to control the fight further and ate an uppercut to the jaw that put him out cold. Blaydes looks to rebound and reclaim his contender status with a win over Rozenstruik, who is riding much the same calculation that Lewis has throughout his career.
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Rozenstruik’s UFC debut against Junior Albini basically told the story. After an unimpressive first round saw Albini find success on the ground, Rozenstruik uncorked some powerful strikes that had him on the mat quickly into the second. After two more wins in a combined 38 seconds, Rozenstruik drew his first UFC main event against Alistair Overeem, which showed off the best and worst of “Bigi Boy.” Rozenstruik did not accomplish much of anything for the greater part of 24 and a half minutes, but a sudden burst into action scored a knockout with just four seconds left in the fight. Ngannou then subsequently ran over Rozenstruik, but the Surinamese heavyweight has been established as a fringe contender ever since, even as his fights mix interminable stretches of inaction with sudden violence. There is the risk that Blaydes gets knocked out once again, but Rozenstruik provides danger in an even narrower window than Lewis on the feet, even before considering the fact that his wrestling and grappling defense has looked quite subpar in his UFC career to date. Blaydes should be able to control this one and should have the opportunity to pound out plenty of damage. The pick is Blaydes via third-round stoppage.
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