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Women’s Bantamweights
#4 WBW | Irene Aldana (12-6, 5-4 UFC) vs. #5 WBW | Yana Kunitskaya (14-5, 4-2 UFC)Advertisement
With Amanda Nunes cleaning house in the UFC’s thin women’s bantamweight division, the winner of this fight could be in surprisingly strong position for an upcoming title shot. Aldana came into the UFC with a solid amount of hype. She was a finishing machine during a successful run in Invicta Fighting Championships and seemed set to capitalize on the UFC’s focus on her native Mexico. However, that just made what has been an inconsistent UFC career feel all the more frustrating. Leslie Smith exposed some flaws in Aldana’s game with her relentless pressure. While Aldana has solid form to her striking, she can be slow to react when opponents can swarm her and get her moving backwards; and in general, Aldana’s finishing ability dried up at the UFC level, leaving her on both sides of a lot of nip-tuck decisions that did not do much to inspire. A surprisingly brutal knockout of Ketlen Vieira to cap 2019 provided some hope that Aldana had turned a corner of some sort, and while she very well may have, that was not on display in her last bout—a headlining affair that saw her mostly get outclassed by Holly Holm. On the plus side, that is about as understandable a loss as a fighter can suffer in this division outside of Nunes, so Aldana’s contender status was not hurt much as a result. Still, she needs a win against Kunitskaya.
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Another former Invicta standout, Kunitskaya took the hard route in making her UFC debut, stepping in as sacrificial lamb when the promotion needed a featherweight title challenger opposite Cristiane Justino. That did not go particularly well for the Russian, but “Foxy” has rebounded by winning four of her last five inside the Octagon, even if the fights themselves have not been particularly pretty. Despite coming from a striking background, Kunitskaya does not appear particularly comfortable on the feet. Instead, she is at her best when she can make her fights an absolute grind. At the very least, Kunitskaya throws enough offense to rack up some counting stats while pinning her opponents to the fence or the mat, but in general, her dynamic tends much more towards control than any sort of spectacular offense. Aspen Ladd proved that Kunitskaya can still be overwhelmed at 135 pounds, though even result was from a third-round comeback staged after losing two clear rounds. Kunitskaya has rebounded well with two straight wins, including her own victory over Vieira to get her to the fringes of title contention.
Unless Aldana truly has turned a corner in terms of knockout power, this has ugly split decision written all over it. Kunitskaya should find some modicum of success pressuring Aldana and turning this into more of a grind, though it is difficult to tell if she can actually separate herself as the much better fighter even while getting the fight she wants. Aldana has some solid grappling skills and could find her way back to her feet, and even if she has not gone full knockout artist, she should still hit the cleaner and harder shots during the moments these two are able to exchange on the feet. This scans as a close fight where the judges will be weighing Kunitskaya’s aggression and control versus Aldana’s actual striking success, which essentially makes it a tossup. The pick is Aldana via decision.
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