Lightweights
Arman Tsarukyan (13-2) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-4)ODDS: Tsarukyan (-185), Aubin-Mercier (+160)
He still likely has another year or two of improvement left in him, but 2018 was a damaging year to Aubin-Mercier’s hopes of becoming a future contender. “The Quebec Kid” showed some promise in a runner-up campaign on “The Ultimate Fighter Nations,” and for the first half of his UFC career, the promotion was content to bring him along slowly. Aubin-Mercier would consistently get matched with opponents who could test him but not present any particular danger, and it was usually the same story. Aubin-Mercier’s boxing would look improved, but he would inevitably get tagged and rely on his judo and grappling background to seal away the win. By the end of 2016, that approach looked to pay dividends, as Aubin-Mercier finally appeared a bit more natural on the feet in a win against Drew Dober. After a grinding win against Anthony Rocco Martin and a quick starching of Evan Dunham, he made it look like the UFC was on its way to having another Canadian contender. That is what made Aubin-Mercier’s last two fights so frustrating. Alexander Hernandez managed to match and overwhelm Aubin-Mercier in terms of pressure and athleticism, while Gilbert Burns set up a stronger wrestling game by landing some big shots of his own. Aubin-Mercier is not a bad fighter by any means, but if he cannot fall back on his grappling, he is not someone who can purely take over a fight with his kickboxing, improved as it might be. At this point, he has been lapped by this latest wave of lightweight prospects. Aubin-Mercier could badly use a win here, but the UFC is not doing him many favors by pitting him against promising Russian in Tsarukyan.
If Tsarukyan had to lose his UFC debut against Islam Makhachev in April, things went about as well as possible. The 22-year old looked promising in his pre-UFC fights, but it was impressive just how well his wrestling game held up against Makhachev. Tsarukyan managed to work his way out of trouble and reverse some exchanges, even becoming the first man to take down Makhachev in the UFC. Tsarukyan also showed off some impressive stuff on the feet. Prior to the Makhachev fight, he was a bit wild, much in the same manner as Magomed Bibulatov, but upon his debut, Tsarukyan showed the ability to stay within himself and give Makhachev a tough battle. There is always concern about overrating prospects by how well they lose a fight, but given Tsarukyan’s age and how much improvement he showed from what was already a promising prospect base, there is a ton about which to be excited.
In a macro sense, the matchmaking here is a bit odd. The UFC should probably want to keep Aubin-Mercier stock strong as a Canadian draw, while Tsarukyan is exactly the type of blue-chip prospect that should be allowed to develop. Ignoring those factors, this is an excellently made fight and should be tough for both men. Tsarukyan should not be able to break Aubin-Mercier like Hernandez or Burns did; he is not quite as relentless as Hernandez or as powerful a one-shot striker as Burns. Plus, Tsarukyan’s grappling defense is still something of a question mark. He looked to shore up many of those concerns with his performance against Makhachev, but he could still use one or two more such performances to prove those issues are fully out the window. However, the axiom for Aubin-Mercier’s career is that if he does not have a clear grappling advantage upon which to fall back, he usually cannot win the fight; and while Aubin-Mercier’s improved much as a striker over his career, he is still somewhat stiff. Tsarukyan’s improvements leading into the Makhachev fight suggest that he is the much more natural fighter on the feet and capable of picking apart the Canadian. This is a difficult call, since so much of this depends on the trendline of Tsarukyan’s career coming off of the Makhachev fight. However, the pick is for the Russian to keep up that level of improvement and take a close decision.
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