Featherweights
Hakeem Dawodu (8-1-1) vs. Kyle Bochniak (8-3)ODDS: Dawodu (-175), Bochniak (+155)
With this fight getting moved to the main card, it looks like the UFC is pegging Alberta’s Dawodu as a potential Canadian star, and it is easy to see why. Dawodu is a young, promising power kickboxer, owing to a background in muay Thai, and despite some inactivity while under contract to World Series of Fighting, he was still considered a top prospect upon his UFC debut earlier this year. About that debut: If nothing else, Dawodu learned a valuable lesson about not underestimating his opposition. Most people expected him to smash Scottish import Danny Henry, but instead it was Henry who clubbed and subbed Dawodu in under a minute. Dawodu thankfully rebounded with a strong performance over the summer, dominating a slow-paced kickboxing match with Austin Arnett, but it was also the type of win that suggested that for all of the Canadian’s athleticism and potential, he is still a prospect with more of a long-term ceiling than someone who can make an immediate impact.
Dawodu faces Boston’s Bochniak, who is quickly making a name for himself as an exciting featherweight gatekeeper and has shown how thin the margins can be for a well-rounded fighter at the UFC level. Bochniak made it onto the UFC roster as a late-notice replacement in early 2016 and spent most of the next two years not showing much of anything; if not for a decision win over Enrique Barzola that was by most accounts a robbery, Bochniak likely would have been cut from the promotion without a win. However, come 2018, Bochniak’s nondescript game suddenly clicked into place, turning that well-roundedness into a strength. First came an impressive win over Brandon Davis, as Bochniak managed to use a mobile striking game to frustrate his more aggressive counterpart. Then came a memorable fight against Zabit Magomedsharipov. It was a clear loss for Bochniak, but the Bostonian still held his own against an elite prospect, showing off an impressive ability to pressure in the process. Bochniak is no future champion, but having shown that he can adapt to his opposition on the feet -- a trait which complements some decent wrestling -- he looks to be someone who can carve out a nice career testing rising prospects.
Dawodu is a legitimate talent, and this is a fight he could easily win. However, this feels like yet another instance of the UFC rushing a prospect up the ladder. Dawodu is still trying to find a balance, and Bochniak is just the kind of well-rounded, adaptable opponent who is probably going to give the Canadian fits once he figures out how to adjust. Dawodu is the better athlete and hits hard, but his one-strike power approach looks like something Bochniak can counteract with a movement-heavy striking game, and from there, it is unclear how well Dawodu can handle the adaptation. If Bochniak seemed less durable, there would still be a decent chance of a Dawodu finish, but this looks like the second fight out of three where the prospect has to learn another lesson. The pick is Bochniak via decision.
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