Women’s Strawweights:
Jessica Andrade (18-6) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-2)ODDS: Andrade (-420), Kowalkiewicz (+335)
Andrade should be next in line for a title shot at strawweight; in fact, if not for champion Rose Namajunas taking some time off to rehab from injuries, Andrade would probably be getting a title shot right about now. Andrade was an interesting if flawed prospect as a bantamweight, but since she cut down to 115 pounds, she has been an absolute wrecking ball, looking unstoppable outside of her title loss to former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. The comparison has been made between Andrade and John Lineker, and it seems apt. Andrade is an absolute tank that just keeps moving forward, and every time her opponent tries to strike, it feels like Andrade hits back twice as hard. Add in a grappling game that features some beastly ground-and-pound and Andrade is one of the most terrifying female fighters in the UFC at any weight. Since losing to Jedrzejczyk, Andrade has spent the ensuing year-plus dominating other top contenders. She exhausted and bulled Claudia Gadelha, the other contender for strongest strawweight in the division, and had little trouble overpowering a game Tecia Torres. Those wins alone are worthy of a title shot, but with Namajunas out of action, it is time for another contender to step up to the plate to take on Andrade. Enter Poland’s Kowalkiewicz.
At first blush, Kowalkiewicz’s game does not seem like it should work. She is almost purely a striker, but she is not particularly fast or athletic; and even her footwork sometimes seems herky-jerky. However, Kowalkiewicz manages to get by, thanks to a combination of toughness, aggression and some deceptive strength, particularly in the clinch. Early UFC fights against Randa Markos and Heather Clark saw Kowalkiewicz use her takedown defense to keep things standing. Then came a breakout win over current champ Namajunas at UFC 201, where “Thug Rose” kept feeling the need to find comfort in the clinch, only to have Kowalkiewicz overpower her in that phase of the game. After she lost a title fight to Jedrzejczyk and got run over by Gadelha, it looked like Kowalkiewicz might suddenly be done as a contender. However, she has rebounded nicely: A win over Jodie Esquibel was purely a showcase for the Pole, but in that fight and in her last bout -- a decision victory over Felice Herrig -- Kowalkiewicz showed some tighter striking and more effective pressure that should help extend her prime a bit more.
Jedrzejczyk’s win over Andrade established a clear blueprint on how to beat the Brazilian: Always stay moving, and as Andrade continues to pressure, pick your shots and then get out of Dodge. If you had to pick someone to copy that game plan, you could do worse than Kowalkiewicz, who is a solid enough striker. However, there are issues, since Kowalkiewicz just is not quite Jedrzejczyk, as their own fight showed. First, there is the obvious athleticism gap, which makes Kowalkiewicz somewhat the inverse of Torres in terms of fighting Andrade. Where Kowalkiewicz might have the reach but not the speed to stick and move, Torres was fast enough but just did not have the frame; and while Kowalkiewicz does have a movement-heavy striking style, when she actually throws strikes, she tends to dart in and out on straight lines, which should leave her open to get hit in exchanges. I do see things to like about Kowalkiewicz’s chances here, particularly since her deceptive strength might give Andrade some trouble in the wrestling department. With that said, given how Gadelha blew through Kowalkiewicz’s grappling defense, I tend to lean towards Andrade being able to overpower her. This might be the toughest win of Andrade’s strawweight run, but at the end of the day, I still think it will be a win. Andrade by decision is the pick.
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