Lightweights
Michael Chiesa (14-3) vs. Anthony Pettis (20-7)
Odds: Chiesa (-160), Pettis (+140)
This is an intriguing scrap with stylistic and narrative questions to answer that figures to deliver in the entertainment department. It is no secret Pettis has had a really rough go of it since his first title defense against Gilbert Melendez. The reasons for his slide are just as apparent. I’ve seen it postulated that Pettis is a victim of his own ridiculous athleticism. His dynamism meant he never had to master some basic fundamentals about footwork that now consistently plague him. Exacerbating this is that opponents have figured it out as well.
The Duke Roufus protégé came up with a combination of flashy, dynamic, devastating kicking offense and a venomous submission game. Those attributes are still in play. But his weakness to pressure -- his footwork going backwards hasn’t advanced to the point that he can keep himself in open space against above average pressure fighters -- neuters his kicking attack, and his boxing isn’t nearly as dangerous or as technical, particularly on the back foot.
Wrestlers, too, have had success against him. While “Showtime’s” defense is solid, he can still spend too much time with his back on the cage fending off takedown attempts, not landing effective offense of his own. When he is taken down, he remains a threat with submissions and has demonstrated a knack for turning over into guard when an opponent has his back. Unfortunately, strong wrestlers and grapplers are able to get to that position with some consistency.
That doesn’t bode well against Chiesa, whose best weapon is his back-take and rear-naked choke. The Sikjitsu rep is lanky, awkward, deceptively powerful, and very tough. The question in this fight will be whether he can pressure Pettis enough or take him down. Chiesa is a southpaw who likes long, straight punches and body kicks. But he does not throw at a high rate (only 2.18 SLpM), isn’t difficult to counter, and is usually looking to duck under or push his way into the clinch to work the fight to the floor. His tall frame also presents an inviting target for Pettis, who likes to stand in the opposite stance of his opponent to open up his baseball-bat body kicks. His wrestling is solid but not overwhelming; he lands 2.71 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 40 percent clip.
Grappling is Chiesa’s avenue to victory against Pettis. Chiesa can’t hope to pressure and put power punches on Pettis in the pocket the way Dustin Poirier did in his last fight. But he can try to rush him into the fence, take him down (or not), and work for his back. When the fight is at range, Pettis will have a marked advantage. He should also be able to hold his own on the mat, as he’s tangled with many elite grapplers and never been submitted. On the contrary, he has tapped the likes of Melendez, Benson Henderson and Charles Oliveira. There may be questions about Pettis’ durability now that he’s been stopped for the first times in his career in his last two losses. However, one was injury-induced and the other at least somewhat attributable to his botched weight cut to 145 pounds, not to mention they were at the hands of absolute killers Poirier and Max Holloway. At the risk of sounding like an Anthony Pettis apologist, I’m taking him in this fight, admittedly without any confidence. I don’t see Chiesa -- uber-aggressive on the mat -- grinding Pettis out, and I see “Showtime’s” submission defense holding up once more. He puts Chiesa in just as many sticky situations on the mat and kicks his legs and body to pieces standing to take a decision victory.
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