Bantamweights
John Lineker (30-8) vs. Brian Kelleher (19-8)
Odds: Lineker (-255), Kelleher (+215)
All-world power puncher Lineker will throw heavy leather with fellow pressure fighter Kelleher in this bantamweight showcase. Given that this division is ruled by a trifecta of prodigious wrestlers -- Cody Garbrandt, Dominick Cruz, and champion TJ Dillashaw -- Lineker’s embarrassing loss to Dillashaw at UFC 207 severely undercuts any championship aspirations he might have. Fortunately, “Hands of Stone” is allergic to boring fights and has a penchant for highlight-reel knockouts, so he’s not going to go without work anytime soon.
The Paranaguá native might kick the legs and body from the outside to start, but sooner or later he will become the relentless, forward-marching wrecking ball, hurling head-body hook combinations with concussive force. Through most of his UFC run, Lineker has been indefatigable in a firefight, utterly confident that his chin and his power will out. That confidence may have been shaken by Dillashaw, who broke his jaw with ground-and-pound and sidelined him for ten months. His return against Marlon Vera was not quite the dominant display most were expecting, and the ever over-performing Vera even took it to him in the third round.
Lineker’s porous takedown defense is the most recent and obvious hole Kelleher could try to exploit in this matchup, but that isn’t really his game. Kelleher struggled to take down Vera and Renan Barao, and while he showed he likes to mix them in, his takedowns aren’t elite. Still, the Team Bombsquad stalwart could choose to go that way, as Lineker instantly becomes not-even-remotely dangerous when planted on his back. He is a powerful scrambler, but despite being a BJJ brown belt, the Brazilian has never demonstrated a consistent ability to get up after being put flat on his back. And inducing scrambles could help set up what netted Kelleher his breakout win over Iuri Alcantara: his guillotine. The New Yorker couldn’t finish Damian Stasiak with it, but it was consistent deterrent to the Pole’s takedowns and enabled Kelleher to win top position in scrambles.
What the rising bantamweight showed off in his most recent win over Barao was a pace and a chin that will be tough to deal with for any but the cream of the crop at 135 pounds. Kelleher absorbs 5.37 significant strikes per minute - a shocking number - but he’s also dishing out 5.65. He has proven he has serious cardio, as well as pop in his left hook, right cross, and right uppercut. His front and round kicks to all levels help supplement his pressure by allowing him to touch at any range. They also back his foe up to the cage, where he’ll grab the Thai clinch and hammer home knees.
Kelleher’s footspeed might be his saving grace here, allowing him to dictate range and when and how exchanges happen. Lineker is notoriously flat-footed, plodding ever forward. But he remains an effective cage-cutter; his every shot seems to move his opponent and he has absolutely no regard for return fire. I don’t see Kelleher being able to take Lineker down or having the disposition to stay on his bike for 15 minutes. That means we should have a firefight on our hands. The only man who might be able to out-punch “Hands of Stone” in a fight like that is Garbrandt. Kelleher will make this exciting. Unfortunately for him, he’ll soon lose his taste for Lineker’s power, or he’ll eat the canvas. The Brazilian captures a thrilling decision.
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