Welterweight
Jingliang Li (14-4) vs. Jake Matthews (11-3)ODDS: Li (-190), Matthews (+165).
ANALYSIS: Matthews is 5-3 under UFC employ, which is nothing at which to sneeze. Conversely, anyone who has seen Matthews fight knows he still has glaring holes in his game that will give any offensively gifted opponents a way in against him. That is precisely why Li is a healthy betting favorite here.
Li does a little of everything right. He is not a dynamite wrestler, but he can do more than Matthews expects from his 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. Li is also not an elite defender, eating 3.20 significant strikes per minute. However, he lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute, which places him among the best in the welterweight division. Behind his seemingly simple jab and low kicks, “The Leech” finds his range and is able to exact an awful lot of punishment.
If you are looking for a specific stylistic rub, look no further than the extent to which Matthews excels off of his back foot. Many great MMA fighters can generate their offense this way, but few do so consistently. Even if the Aussie is the more skilled and gifted fighter in this case, he is still likely to be worn out by the indefatigable, forward-marching style of his opponent.
Expect a squeaker, but look for “The Celtic Kid” to be taught another lesson, as he drops a scrappy decision to “The Leech” over 15 minutes.
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