Heavyweights
Stefan Struve (27-8) vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (19-5-1)Though he is six years younger, Struve has nine more fights than Omielanczuk, and he has been fighting six years longer. Struve is both more dangerous and more vulnerable. He has eight knockout wins and 16 submissions, but he has also been knocked out six times. Struve also struggled recently with anxiety, in addition to a heart defect and a broken jaw, courtesy of Mark Hunt. In other words, Struve has not had an easy road of late.
Struve has struggled with his own body for the entirety of his career. At 7-feet tall, “The Skyscraper” is the tallest fighter on the roster by a significant margin. His 84-inch wingspan is a natural advantage, but Struve has never had the right temperament to use it. His preference has typically been for fighting tall rather than fighting long, stepping into the pocket with uppercuts and knees and throwing combinations of punches rather than sticking and moving behind a jab. Struve has finally learned to use his length to a certain degree, but even his best performances are inconsistent. Struve moved and jabbed quite well against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -- for about half the fight. The rest of the time, he traded punches in tight and found himself repeatedly tied up and backed into the fence.
Struve would be well-served to drag Omielanczuk to the ground. He does not typically shoot for takedowns but he completes 80 percent of the ones he tries, and Omielanczuk has only stopped 47 percent of his opponents’ attempts in the UFC. If that does not happen, however, Omielanczuk will give him trouble -- despite the fact that he is one of the shortest heavyweights fighting the absolute tallest. He is quite comfortable striking from long range, using snappy kicks and lunging punches to sting his opponent. As noted above, he can be backed into the fence but he moves a lot, and Struve’s more stationary style should give him some angles from which to throw.
THE ODDS: Struve (-175), Omielanczuk (+150)
THE PICK: Struve knocked out Antonio Silva in his last fight, but before that, he was utterly stymied by Jared Rosholt, who barely did anything. A 39-year-old “Minotauro” Nogueira also gave him problems. Omielanczuk has not had a perfect career, either, but his most recent fights have been some of his best. He faced a tough style matchup in Oleynik and fought back like a demon to get the win. Struve is a very different breed of opponent, but so far in the UFC, Omielanczuk has struggled far more with wrestlers than he has other strikers. The same cannot be said of Struve, even if his level of competition has been higher. The pick is Omielanczuk by unanimous decision in a mild upset.
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