Middleweights
Dan Henderson (31-14) vs. Hector Lombard (34-5-1)Lombard is a powerful boxer with no sense of strategy. He is capable of fighting too slowly, letting a bout slip through his fingers while he waits for the perfect counter. He is also capable of fighting too hard, gunning for the finish when it would be wise to reserve some energy for the later rounds. When he does find an opening, however, Lombard is a destructive force: 19 of his 34 wins are knockouts. Lombard also has black belts in both judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, making him a force in the clinch and on the ground, especially in top position.
Henderson is little more than a power puncher these days and a more limited one than ever. Never a defensive virtuoso, Henderson’s hittability has become an increasingly problematic liability as his legendary chin has eroded into a decidedly worse-than-average one. It is a rare fight now in which Henderson does not get dropped, and he has been KO’d in three of his last six -- after having never been knocked out for 16 years before that.
Henderson is still capable of surprises. Not only is his right hand as dangerous as ever, but his many years of elite experience have imbued him with craft that belies his apparently brutish approach to fighting. It has been four and a half years since Henderson won two in a row, but nonetheless he managed to knock out a pair of tough and crafty fighters in Tim Boetsch and Mauricio Rua despite being a heavy underdog on both occasions.
THE ODDS: Lombard (-370), Henderson (+305)
THE PICK: Lombard’s weaknesses are endurance, or lack thereof, and focus, or lack thereof, but Henderson’s weakness is fighters fast enough to hit him. Unless his chin makes an unexpected and unprecedented return, Lombard’s thunderbolt punches will be more than enough to put him away, and Lombard is more than fast and accurate enough to connect early and often. The pick is Lombard by first-round knockout.
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