Preview: UFC 194 ‘Aldo vs. McGregor’

Welterweights

Demian Maia (21-6) vs Gunnar Nelson (14-1-1)

THE MATCHUP: Maia is 38 years old, but he has a firm grip on his status as top-10 welterweight. Much maligned for his striking, Maia is not a bad kickboxer. He moves relatively well and throws a good amount of volume, frequently mixing kicks and punches. Even better, Maia has completely shed his previous tendency to get stuck in a striking battle. Now he uses his striking just enough to distract opponents or force them to attack, at which point he can put his grappling expertise to work.

Perhaps the most underrated aspect of Maia’s game is his wrestling. A fourth-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Fabio Gurgel, Maia has avoided the fate of many BJJ specialists in MMA by actually possessing the ability to get his opponents to the ground when he wants to. Not only does Maia time reactive takedowns very well, but he is a masterful finisher, using trips, sweeps and angular movement to drag his opponent to the ground even after a perfect initial defense. Once on the canvas, Maia’s opponents tend to stay there. Maia is extremely poised on the ground, staying one step ahead of his opponent in order to set up effortless passes to mount and smooth back takes.

Nelson, also a decorated BJJ black belt, is no slouch on the ground, having submitted nine of his 16 professional opponents. Like Maia, Nelson is a terror in top position. He is more aggressive and offensively potent than Maia when he has an opponent on his back. Nelson’s ground-and-pound, in particular, is far more dangerous than Maia’s. This does give him less control, however, which often means Nelson has to strike with opponents after failing to finish them on the ground.

Nelson would appear to be the better striker in this matchup. He is certainly more dangerous, and his long-range, Goju-ryu karate style means he will be operating from a range in which Maia has never been particularly comfortable. Nelson covers long distances very quickly, often throwing multiple right hands in quick succession as he closes the gap and aims for the clinch. He is susceptible to counterstrikes and takedowns when he does this, however, and his defense is nowhere near consistent enough to warrant his casually lowered hands.

THE ODDS: Maia (-145), Nelson (+125)

THE PICK: Nelson feels like the favorite in this matchup due to his age and finishing potential, but Maia has proven his place at the top time and again. Nelson will have every opportunity to sneak in a big punch or kick, but he is a poor combination striker and his lunging style of attack means Maia will be able to counter with takedowns. Not only is Maia the better wrestler, but he is not an easy man to knock out, having only been stopped once in 27 fights. Nelson would not be the first grappling ace that Maia has effortlessly dominated on the ground, either. The pick is Maia by unanimous decision.

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