Preview: UFC 181 ‘Hendricks vs. Lawler 2’

Eight of Todd Duffee’s 10 fights have ended inside one round. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Photo: Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Hamilton has stopped eight foes.

HEAVYWEIGHTS
Todd Duffee (8-2, 2-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Hamilton (13-3, 1-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Onetime top prospect Duffee returns after a near two-year absence due to illness to face Hamilton. Duffee’s talent has never truly been in doubt, as all eight of his wins are by knockout, and only two opponents have made it past the first round. Hamilton, who is coming off a victory over Ruan Potts, is effectively a gatekeeper matchup to see where Duffee stands after his layoff.

Duffee is a physical specimen, with great size, strength, speed and enormous power in his hands. He is effectively a throwback sprawl-and-brawler with outstanding takedown defense and a potent boxing game. He sprawls well, is quick to dig for under hooks and maintains excellent balance against the fence. When Duffee goes on offense, he slings a crisp jab and hard multi-punch combinations, with a preference for a long straight right and uppercut. He often lever punches -- throws multiple shots with the same hand in sequence -- with his right hand, using a hook or an overhand to draw his opponent’s glove toward his ear and then immediately following up the middle with an uppercut. He has tremendous killer instinct, and when he smells blood, he pounces. While his cardio is a question mark, his defense seems to be average and he lacks many ancillary skills, few can withstand Duffee’s offensive onslaught.

Hamilton has good physical tools by the standard of the division and can do a bit of everything. He has solid footwork and flicks a nice jab as he moves, and he mixes up his kicks and power punches fairly well. While he does a decent job of moving his head, he also has a distinct tendency to circle into his opponent’s power hand, which has gotten him into trouble in the past. A strong clinch fighter, Hamilton has a quick shot, good finishes to his takedowns and a powerful top game with mean ground striking.

BETTING ODDS: Duffee (-280), Hamilton (+240)

THE PICK: Although Hamilton is a good fighter and should stick around for a while, this looks like a showcase matchup for Duffee. Hamilton probably will not be able to work takedowns consistently, and Duffee is a quicker, more powerful and more technical striker on the feet. I mentioned Hamilton’s tendency to circle into his opponent’s power hand earlier, and I think he will walk into one of Duffee’s lever-punching combinations relatively early in the fight. Duffee by knockout in the first round is the pick.

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