Lightweights
Clay Collard (22-10, 4-2 PFL) vs. Steven Ray (25-12, 2-3 PFL)ODDS: Collard (-280), Ray (+210)
It was a classic Collard performance at PFL 3, where the Pit Elevated Fight Team member relied on punching combinations to the head and body to capture a unanimous decision triumph against newcomer Yamato Nishikawa. With a background that includes 18 professional boxing matches, Collard rarely throws single shots, instead overwhelming his opposition with volume and constant forward pressure. The UFC veteran is durable enough to absorb return fire from his opponent in order to force the type of exchanges he desires, as he has been stopped by knockout just once in his MMA tenure. That offensive focus does have a cost at times. Witness his last outing against Nishikawa, as he was buckled by a steady barrage of low kicks from his Japanese adversary. That, however, was not enough to offset Collard’s output, and he sealed his latest victory with ground-and-pound from top position. Collard is not a one-dimensional boxer, as he will throw kicks and mix in takedowns when the need arises.
Ray was a nice comeback story in 2022, emerging from a retirement that lasted more than two years to make the PFL lightweight final. However, the Scot is winless against opponents not named Anthony Pettis, which does not bode well for his chances going forward because “Showtime” has proven to be a diminished version of his peak self in recent years. In his last outing, Ray surrendered repeated takedowns to Natan Schulte, and his active submission game simply did not register against a defensively sound grappler in a clear-cut unanimous decision defeat.
Ray is a resourceful veteran, but his best chance for victory here would seem to be forcing scrambles on the mat. Collard has been known to take chances in grappling exchanges, and “Braveheart” has the tools to take advantage if his opponent becomes careless. Otherwise, Collard will put the pressure on Ray with his trademark boxing for three rounds, racking up a significant lead on the scorecards. Outside of a Hail Mary-type of submission victory, it is difficult to see a clear path to victory for Ray, though he will be game. Collard wins an entertaining decision.
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