Ht/Wt: 6’3/240 lbs.
Age: 29
Hometown: Minsk, Belarus
Fighting out of: Chicago
Record: 13-5
The stakes: After Affliction’s cold feet nixed his number one contender match with Josh Barnett, Arlovski finds himself gambling his long-term future. By accepting this bout under the EliteXC banner on network television, he could either set the table for a mainstream crossover or end up botching a potential super-fight with Fedor Emelianenko.
Why he’ll win: After a string of UFC fights that had many reaching for the nearest remote control, Arlovski looked like his old self again in his Affliction debut against Ben Rothwell in July. He showed the fluid footwork and accurate striking that made him a terror during his UFC heyday. Much of Arlovski’s success has been tied to his state of mind, and he appears to have rediscovered the mental groove that allows his physical talents to shine. Against Nelson, Arlovski has a considerable edge in all facets of the striking game. And while Nelson has a strong grappling pedigree, “Pitbull” has both the takedown and submission defense to keep him from getting much done.
Nelson Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’0/265 lbs.
Age: 32
Hometown: Las Vegas
Fighting out of: Reno, Nev.
Record: 13-2
The stakes: Champion of a defunct promotion, Nelson has left the barren wasteland that is the IFL for what he hopes are greener pastures in Affliction. Ironically, Nelson’s first fight for his new employer will come by proxy through EliteXC, which makes it no less critical. A loss here all but disqualifies him from the Emelianenko sweepstakes; a win would prove the Round Mound of Ground-and-Pound is ready for primetime.
Why he’ll win: Nelson’s soft physique belies a hard-nosed demeanor backed up by his willingness to stand right in front of chiseled opponents and chip away at their perceived superiority. As long as Nelson varies his approach by at least forcing Arlovski to remain mindful of the takedown, he can keep the bout from turning into the kind of technical boxing affair that so heavily favors Arlovski. If Nelson can turn this into a close quarters trench war, all the fast twitch muscle fibers in the world will not save Arlovski from defeat against MMA’s self-declared “Fat Guy.”
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The bottom line: Seeing Arlovski’s fragile psyche go Hindenberg after some pudgy dude from Vegas picks him apart would make for comedy of the highest order. However, there exists a huge gap in ability that Nelson must overcome. Considering Ben Rothwell proved to be too big a buffet for Nelson, it’s hard to imagine him doing any better against a far superior version of the same fighter. The early going will see Nelson try to turn this into a slugfest, but Arlovski’s movement and accuracy will end up making him look like a lamb being led to the slaughter.