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Gegard Mousasi vs. Jake O’Brien

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For whatever reason, O’Brien has become a chic pick in some circles to derail Mousasi’s bid to win a second Dream grand prix. It’s just one more proof that being cool often comes at the expense of sanity.

Yes, Mousasi did get completely wrestle-pasted by Muhammad Lawal, but O’Brien isn’t that kind of wrestler or fighter. He’s actually quite one-dimensional. While he will have a considerable size advantage, it won’t mean much when weighed against Mousasi’s vastly superior offensive arsenal. A natural on the feet and on the mat, the versatility and dynamism of Mousasi’s offense is something O’Brien doesn’t have the game to suffocate.

It took careful game planning and flawless top control for Lawal to survive Mousasi’s guard unscathed, and O’Brien has never shown that level of discipline or ability. While O’Brien certainly has the wrestling to get Mousasi horizontal, he doesn’t have anything else to offer him beyond takedowns. Once Mousasi starts stringing together submission attempts and disrupting O’Brien’s base, it will become obvious why this fight is so severely stacked in favor of “The Dreamcatcher.”

Anywhere this fight goes, it’s in Mousasi’s favor while O’Brien has no choice but to pursue a predictable one-dimensional strategy. I just can’t see O’Brien doing what Lawal had to dig down deep to pull off. A few minutes of uneventful top control for O’Brien ends with him tapping out and the MMA talkosphere being reminded why Mousasi was once the darling of fan and analyst alike.