WEC 48 Preview: The Main Card

Mike Thomas Brown vs. Manny Gamburyan

Advertisement

The Breakdown: Whoever walks away with the featherweight strap in the main event likely has the winner of this bout to look forward to. The fight itself hinges largely on Gamburyan’s ability to get Brown on his back and keep him there.

Not to be too reductive with a world-class fight, but Gamburyan can only win by out-wrestling Brown and he needs to start doing a much better job of looking for the finish. While Gamburyan never has trouble flashing his front headlock and leglock game against mediocre competition, he struggles to find the same openings against quality competition. Even more worrying is just how sloppy he looked trying to take down anti-wrestler Leonard Garcia at WEC 44.

Not only is Brown every bit as massive a featherweight as Garcia, he’s a far better wrestler and striker as well. Considering how often Garcia was able to stuff Gamburyan’s takedowns, it’s hard to imagine Gamburyan getting past the same Great Wall takedown defense that has frustrated the likes of Jeff Curran and Urijah Faber.

The real problem comes in once Brown stuffs the takedown. Gamburyan’s limited striking skills and T-Rex arms make him an easy mark for a power puncher like Brown. While Gamburyan usually evades the striking game by crowding his opponents, Brown excels at landing power punches from up close and his clinch game is flat-out suffocating.

It’s hard to overstate just how powerful Brown is from close quarters. If Gamburyan sells out for the takedown, he’ll likely end up getting reversed and his guard game is bare bones. Moreover, Brown’s ground-and-pound has been overwhelming ever since he dropped to the featherweight ranks. This is just one of those fights where one guy needs everything to go perfectly for 15 minutes while the other needs maybe 10 seconds to snatch a W.

* * *

The Bottom Line: Gamburyan is two-dimensional, and his options are even more limited against Brown. There is just no way Gamburyan is going to out-wrestle Brown, and his odds of hitting a submission are virtually nil. It’ll be a matter of time before Gamburyan has to stand his ground on the feet, and he won’t stand it long.