UFC on Fuel TV 1 Preview: The Main Card

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Middleweights
Aaron Simpson (11-2, 6-2 UFC) vs. Ronny Markes (12-1, 1-0 UFC)

The Matchup: Despite being 37 years old, Simpson continues to display signs of his evolution inside the cage. Faced with Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Eric Schafer at UFC 136, Simpson eschewed his normal wrestling-based approach to keep their fight standing. It turned out to be a solid plan for the Power MMA export, who dropped Schafer in the first and second frames but managed to resist the temptation to follow his foe to the ground. The end result was the third straight decision victory for Simpson, who seems to have learned a lot from back-to-back losses to Chris Leben and Mark Munoz in 2010.

Markes made his UFC debut on short notice, stepping in for Stephan Bonnar to face Karlos Vemola at UFC Live 5. The 23-year-old Brazilian employed a strategy that looked similar to what Simpson usually does in the cage, as he took down Vemola six times over the course of three rounds and pounded the Czech with ground-and-pound. Although he did not finish, Markes demonstrated a good awareness by attacking his foe with punches, elbows and knees to the body as Vemola appeared to fade.

This will be Markes’ middleweight debut, and, as with anyone dropping down a weight class, he will have to answer questions regarding how a more significant cut will affect his conditioning. Simpson should help answer those questions; ever since gassing in his loss to Leben, the former Arizona State University wrestler has shown good stamina in the Octagon.

Simpson may very well return to his wrestling roots against Markes, who is a good athlete with explosive finishing ability -- seven of his career victories have come inside of a round. Look for Simpson to close the distance using his solid right hand and control the action in the clinch with dirty boxing. If he chooses to take the action to the canvas, he can score a takedown in a variety of ways, including trips, single-legs, double-legs and slams.

The Pick: If Markes can land something big early, he has the ability to follow up with a fight-ending submission. The longer the bout drags on, the more it favors Simpson, who is accustomed to going the distance. Simpson wins by decision.

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