Lightweights
Jamie Varner (20-6-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Joe Lauzon (21-7, 8-4 UFC)
Perhaps Lauzon got a little bit too much hype for his submission of Melvin Guillard. After suddenly emerging in Top 10 discussions, “J-Lau” was brought back to earth by an Anthony Pettis head kick at UFC 144. Realistically, Lauzon is more of a solid gatekeeper-type who is capable of springing an upset thanks to his aggressive approach and active submission game.
Both men will look to land the takedown early and often, but Varner, with his collegiate wrestling background, will have the distinct advantage when it comes to dictating the location of the fight. Varner’s top game is based on ground-and-pound, while Lauzon can chain together submission attempts from above or from his back. Of course, Lauzon’s activity could prove costly if it means Varner will be able to posture up and land heavier shots from the top.
Lauzon is comfortable with his boxing, which he uses well to transition to takedowns by landing accurate combinations. That will prove more difficult against Varner, who can sprawl and land knees when his opponent shoots or escape from his back if he finds himself on the ground. Lauzon generally favors a rapid pace in the opening five minutes, but he tends to fade as the fight goes deeper, losing steam on his takedowns and surrendering position on the mat.
The Pick: If Varner can weather the storm early -- and getting past the likes of Barboza certainly has to boost his confidence -- he should find openings for his powerful right hand in the latter portion of the fight. As long as he is conservative with his offense on the floor, he will be able to wear down Lauzon for a decision or late stoppage.
Last Fights » The Prelims