UFC on Fox 3 ‘Diaz vs. Miller’ Preview

Middleweights

Rousimar Palhares (14-3, 7-2 UFC) vs. Alan Belcher (17-6, 8-4 UFC)

The Matchup: Palhares is quickly becoming one of the most feared middleweights in the promotion, thanks to his physicality and penchant for gruesome leg locks. “Toquinho” was in top form at UFC 142, cracking Mike Massenzio with leg kicks before finishing the contest with his patented heel hook in just 63 seconds. It was the third straight win for the Brazilian since a disappointing loss to Nate Marquardt, and one more solid performance figures to give Palhares a Top 10 opponent in his next outing.

After more than a year away from the cage due to a career-threatening eye injury, Belcher returned to action with a first-round triumph over Jason MacDonald in September. “The Talent” did a good job stuffing the takedowns of MacDonald, but fending off the powerful Palhares is another thing entirely.

Palhares likes to move forward and dictate the action, throwing authoritative punches and shooting for takedowns. On the mat, he is at his best, as he will mix heavy ground-and-pound with a variety of guard passes and submission attempts. While primarily known as a kickboxer, Belcher also possesses an underrated jiu-jitsu game. He takes risks when creating scrambles on the ground, however, and Palhares is just the type of opponent who can capitalize if Belcher becomes careless.

Belcher will need to create space, which is easier said than done against the hard-charging Brazilian Top Team export. The Mississippi native mixes his strikes well, using solid boxing and kicks to the legs and body to rack up points. He will need to keep his hands up when throwing kicks or risk being caught by Palhares, who makes up for his lack of striking diversity with sheer force.

Utilizing movement and angles will help Belcher extend the fight and test Palhares’ gas tank. It is going to be a difficult task against the all-out blitz he is going to face, and Belcher might very well decide to throw caution to the wind and engage in a slugfest. The problem is he lacks the defensive wrestling to overcome someone with the overall strength of Palhares.

The Pick: Palhares has the look of a fighter on a roll. If Belcher cannot land something significant early, he will find himself in the unenviable position of having to defend against one of the most dangerous submission artists in the sport. While scrambling to avoid some vicious ground-and-pound, Belcher leaves himself exposed, and Palhares capitalizes via first-round submission.

Next Fight » Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson