UFC Fight Night Preview

Clay Guida Scouting Report

Ht/Wt: 5’7”/155 lbs.
Age: 26
Hometown: Round Lake, Ill.
Fighting out of: Johnsburg, Ill.
MMA record: 23-9

Bio: The living embodiment of his “Carpenter” mantra, Guida is the prototypical rugged wrestler with an endless motor and an excess of moxie. Unfortunately, that mix has turned out to be both Guida’s greatest asset and his biggest liability inside the cage.

The proof lies in his pedestrian 3-3 mark inside the UFC. A closer look, however, reveals that every one of those losses has been wildly competitive, including a pair of decision losses to Tyson Griffin and Din Thomas that bordered on controversial.

The excess of moxie kept Guida fighting in both of those losses, but it cost him a guaranteed win against Roger Huerta when he foolishly went for broke in the final round and got himself choked out in short order. Whether Guida can ever figure out how to strike the right balance will be what decides his place in a shark-tank division.

Why he’ll win: A gifted wrestler with the ground-and-pound to back it up, Guida should be able to take the top position against Danzig and ply his trade. Throw in his vastly improved striking and Guida is flush with opportunities to jump out to an early lead that he can build on.

Why he’ll lose: Submission defense has always been Guida’s death knell inside the cage. He can ill afford any mistakes on the ground against Danzig, whose career has been revitalized by his run on “The Ultimate Fighter.”

Mac Danzig Scouting Report

Ht/Wt: 5’8”/155 lbs.
Age: 28
Hometown: Cleveland
Fighting out of: Los Angeles
MMA record: 18-4-1

Bio: One of the more unique characters to emerge from “The Ultimate Fighter,” Danzig’s bah-humbug personality and resolute vegan ethics made him stick out like a sore thumb amongst the usual crowd of loudmouth boozers and slackers.

Not surprisingly, he completely outclassed his reality TV counterparts and took home the season six title. In doing so, Danzig experienced what I’ve coined as the “TUF Phenomenon,” where solid fighters whose careers have stalled come out of the show rejuvenated and ready to defy past expectations.

We saw the first signs of that when Danzig took on Mark Bocek, one of Canada’s premier lightweight prospects, and scored a submission win over the supposed grappling demigod. If Danzig can keep this going, he may join past TUF alumni who resurrected stalled careers such as Forrest Griffin and fellow headliner, Nate Diaz.

Why he’ll win: One of the most well-rounded graduates of the UFC’s reality TV juggernaut, Danzig handles himself with aplomb regardless of where the fight goes. Against Guida’s straightforward style, he should have no problem frustrating “The Carpenter” with a varied offensive.

Why he’ll lose: While Danzig showed shocking wrestling skill against Tommy Speer, Guida is one of the best wrestlers in the division. If Danzig can’t hold his own, he may end up on the losing end of a top-control special.

* * *

The bottom line: While Guida should have no problem scoring the bulk of the takedowns in this bout, his striking is a bit one-dimensional and his submission defense in particular is the 800-pound gorilla in the room when it comes to his MMA prospects.

Danzig will control the striking by mixing up his approach. Once the bout hits the ground, Guida will control the bulk of the action, but it’s a matter of time before he hands Danzig a golden opportunity. Don’t bank on Danzig letting it pass him by.